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GRAPHIC -China's new stimulus plans make a splash in global markets
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GRAPHIC -China's new stimulus plans make a splash in global markets
Sep 26, 2024 10:19 AM

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - China-exposed assets jumped

on Tuesday after Beijing announced its biggest stimulus since

the pandemic in a bid to pull the world's second-largest economy

out of the deflationary funk that has shaken global currency and

equity markets this year.

The broader-than-expected package offers more funding and

interest rate cuts.

European stocks, emerging-market currencies and commodities

lapped up the news, but analysts questioned how effective it

would be in the longer run, given extremely weak credit demand

from domestic businesses and consumers.

Here we look at five places where China's economic weakness

has been particularly felt, and what these new measures might

mean.

GOING UNDERGROUND

Bruised mining stocks were the biggest gainers in Europe and

Australia on Tuesday.

"The stimulus measures may support the property markets more

than broader consumption or industrial activity and so it is no

surprise that the depressed mining stocks are outperforming,"

said Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS.

"It remains to be seen if these measures are sufficient to

ignite more private sector optimism. History would suggest

fiscal rather than monetary measures are more effective."

An index of European mining stocks rose 4.6% its

biggest daily gain in two years, while Australian mining stocks

rose 2.8%, logging their largest daily rise in a year.

Both have been under pressure in recent months.

HEY, BIG SPENDERS

Shares in European luxury retailers, popular with China's

once-big spending urban middle class professionals, have been

among the most obvious victims of economic weakness in the

world's second largest economy.

A benchmark of European luxury stocks is down 4.2% year to

date versus a 7.7% rise in the STOXX 600.

However, that same benchmark jumped 3% on Tuesday on the

back of the new measures. If sustained that would be its biggest

one-day jump since January.

Analysts at RBC say within the luxury sector, the revenues

of Swatch Group, Burberry ( BBRYF ) and Richemont

are the most exposed to China. Their shares were up between 2

and 5% on Tuesday.

U.S. shares have reacted less than European, with the S&P

500 down 0.1% at 1455 GMT.

"There, you have an economy that is much less geared to

China demand, in Europe this kind of gearing is way more," noted

Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at Bank of America.

TRADE IN DEUTSCHLAND

China is Germany's second-biggest trading partner after the

United States, so many of its companies suffered as demand for

cars and machinery weakened while competition from Chinese

domestic rivals grew, an additional drag on an economy already

reeling from an energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of

Ukraine.

If China's new measures help stabilise the real estate

market, this would have a positive impact especially on the

German chemical sector, said Uwe Hohmann, equity strategist at

Metzler Capital Markets.

German carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW

and auto part suppliers are facing more of a

structural issue due to competition with local rivals, and thus

a stabilization in the market would affect them less, Hohmann

said.

COMMODITY EXPORTERS

China has been an engine of growth for emerging markets near

and far, sucking in especially their commodities and oil exports

in boom times whenever the world's number two economy gets a

shot in the arm.

But this time might be different.

"There is still no major fiscal stimulus directly aimed at

the anaemic consumer, which remains the key constraint," said

Hasnain Malik at Tellimer. "Therefore, (the) package again falls

short of the 'bazooka' stimulus that will alter the outlook for

global commodities demand."

Yet economies geographically closer to China and that have

close trading ties with the country could see some tailwinds -

as could those holding their domestic government bonds, said

Charu Chanana, strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

The stimulus is also coming hot on the heels of a

super-sized U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which generally marks

a sweet spot for emerging economies.

ANOTHER FX PERSPECTIVE

China's yuan hit its highest in 16 months, defying the

conventional pull of gravity in the FX market, in which stimulus

and lower rates tend to translate into a weaker currency.

But the prospect of a boost for the country's massive

economy and its markets is enough to get people flocking.

China-sensitive currencies like the euro,

Australian dollar and Malaysian ringgit - which

has vaulted to three-year highs after Beijing's burst of

stimulus - are all likely to gain a foothold against the dollar,

as investors favour more cyclical currencies.

But it's the "reflation trade pair", the euro against the

Aussie dollar, that could act as a better gauge of how

successful investors believe China's efforts are, according to a

number of analysts.

Euro/Aussie was up on Tuesday, on shifting

Australian rate expectations, but has been trending lower,

dropping 5.5% in seven weeks, compared with a 1.6% rise in

euro/dollar and a 0.8% rise in the euro/onshore yuan.

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