The results of the two Assembly elections -- Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh --went on predictable lines. Even the pollsters got it right at least in catching the drift though not quite there in terms of the numbers. It can be viewed as a case of being cautious in reading the data.

Yet, this cannot take away the stupendous victories recorded by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Gujarat and the Congress in the Himachal Pradesh. The BJP retained the right to govern the border state with a thumping four-fifths majority.

In the process, the BJP managed to better the 1985 record created by the Congress in the state by bagging 150 plus seats. The BJP’s best till date was 127 seats it won in 2002 though its vote share continued to go down. In this election, it crossed the fifty percent mark. In addition, the party drew par with the Left Parties which came to office in West Bengal on seven consecutive occasions between 1977 and 2011.

Records and statistics apart, the results of these two assembly elections narrate a different political tale. The simple narration is that the voters of Gujarat placed complete trust in the BJP and spoke on it loud and clear while in the small hill-state of Himachal Pradesh, the electorate placed greater confidence in the Congress to deliver as against endorsement of its development work of the BJP government.

The political landscape in both states were vastly different. The BJP with its great election machinery pressed home in Gujarat to convert every opportunity that came its way. It refused to concede any space to the opposition led by the Congress whose strategy resulted in the BJP reduced to double digit representation in the 2017 assembly results. Then it projected the Congress as the only serious contender ignoring the Aam Aadmi Party.

To deal with headwinds, it denied tickets to sitting legislators including the one at Morbi, the city where the bridge collapse led to deaths. The result in the city went in favour of the BJP, proving right the instincts of the party leadership by removing legislators whose performance would have cost a seat.

On the larger plane, the BJP continued to reap political harvest in the form of assembly representation with people strongly identifying the party with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both as the Chief Minister and now, PM Modi remained consistent in reminding the people of the ‘Gujarati Pride’ and took great satisfaction in the way the state was built over the past few decades. He led from the front campaigning extensively and capped it with roadshows.

Of course, the party remained strongly identified with Hindutva. Reports from the state suggested that despite economic conditions being less than conducive with people experiencing effects of higher prices of essentials and lower returns on produce, the thought of entertaining any other party was nixed on the ground that it could empower the minorities. During the campaign, its leaders talked about firmness in delivery on promises like removal of Article 370 and the ongoing construction of Ram temple at Ayodhya.

In the same breath, the electorate were drilled by the good governance Gujarat model and just before the polls, two major projects – the airplane manufacturing factory and another to make smartphones were inaugurated. The subtle message was to aspirational youth of more jobs and opportunities coming their way.

The other factor that resulted in the BJP taking home over 150 seats can be attributed to the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party. Although its Convenor and Delhi Chief Minister boasted of riding into Gandhinagar secretariat, results show that its approximately 13 percent vote was sliced from the Congress. In 2017 the Congress vote share was slightly above 41 per cent which fell to 27 per cent. AAP can stay content of having picked up a few seats and a double digit vote share which should propel it towards seeking national party status.

Congress party could not hold on to its strong presence in areas dominated by tribals who constitute some 15 percent of the population. The BJP made inroads and the election of President Draupadi Murmu could have tipped the scales so much that the party won 24 of the 40 seats, decimating Bhartiya Tribal Party too.

The Gujarat win will add to the confidence of the BJP as it prepares for the next round of assembly elections next year in the home stretch to the Lok Sabha elections of 2024.

The taste of victory in Gujarat could have been sweeter for the BJP had the party managed to retain its government in Himachal Pradesh. Barring a sweep of nine of the ten seats in Chief Minister Jairam Thakur’s Mandi home district, it was a Congress show all the way.

The party played its cards well to build upon the legacy of former Chief Minister late Virbhadra Singh, who was an acknowledged leader both in upper and lower parts of the state. His widow Pratibha Singh is now a front-runner as the Chief Minister as the Congress now battles with a problem of plenty of aspirants.

The one single factor that made the difference was Congress' offer to bring back the Old Pension Scheme in the State where the ire of government employees can scald governments, as it did now and in the 1980s to remove BJP’s Shanta Kumar government.

With the two assembly results remaining under spotlight, the results of the by-polls to Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat in UP, and five state assemblies were relegated to the side-lines. While the Samajwadi Party retained the Lok Sabha seat with Dimple Yadav winning against the vacancy caused by the death of her father-in-law Mulayam Singh Yadav, the BJP’s Akash Saxena’s victory in Rampur assembly is a watershed moment in the state politics. The minority dominated constituency was SP’s stronghold for decades and was held by Azam Khan. The subscript of this result confirms the BJP template for the state.

(Edited by : CH Unnikrishnan)