financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed seen waiting at least until June to cut rates
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed seen waiting at least until June to cut rates
Mar 12, 2024 8:49 AM

(Reuters) -A second straight month of stronger-than-expected inflation has effectively shut the door on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before June, with some traders and analysts betting central bankers may need to wait even longer.

Gasoline and shelter prices drove the February consumer price index up 3.2% versus a year earlier, an acceleration from January's 3.1% increase. Underlying core inflation, excluding gas and food prices, slowed less than economists had forecast, and on a three-month and six-month basis actually gained traction.

Fed policymakers are meeting next week and are universally expected to leave the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.5% range, where it has been since last July.

Until recently there had been some speculation that a rate cut could still come at their following meeting on April 30-May 1 if inflation, which fell rapidly last year and then jumped in January, resumes its path toward the Fed's 2% goal.

But Tuesday's inflation report "is an ugly read that will do nothing to sooth nerves" at the Fed, wrote BMO economist Scott Anderson. "Clearly, restrictive monetary policy has not yet fully done its work and a patient and slightly hawkish Fed must remain in place for the monetary medicine to fully take effect."

Core services inflation excluding rents, a measure to which Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he pays close attention, rose 0.5% in February from a month earlier, and over the past three month is up on an annualized basis by 6.8%, compared with the 6.7% pace in January.

Those sticky-hot readings will add to Fed caution on the inflation outlook, said Nationwide's Kathy Bostjancic.

"While we thought a May cut was on the table, it is increasingly likely that the FOMC waits at least until June to start easing monetary policy," she said.

Traders of futures contracts that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing in a less-than-one-in-10 chance of a May rate cut, but continue to see about a 70% chance of a rate cut by June.

After the inflation data they slightly pared their view of how much the Fed will cut rates by year-end, though in all they still expect the central bank will deliver four quarter-point rate cuts from June to December.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Supplier Prices Threaten To Impact Inflation Over Turbulent Commodity Markets, Middle East Instability
Supplier Prices Threaten To Impact Inflation Over Turbulent Commodity Markets, Middle East Instability
May 13, 2024
This week, traders are gearing up for significant market volatility centered around two major inflation reports: the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. These reports are crucial indicators of inflationary trends in the U.S. economy and could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months. What to Expect...
Corporate greed not to blame for price pressures, Fed study shows
Corporate greed not to blame for price pressures, Fed study shows
May 13, 2024
(Reuters) - Corporate price gouging has not been a primary driver of U.S. inflation, according to research published on Monday by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. While markups for motor vehicles and petroleum products did rise sharply during the 2021-2022 inflation surge, markups across the entire spectrum of U.S. goods and services have been relatively flat...
Increasing Short-Term Inflation Expectations Weigh on US Equity Indexes Ahead of Consumer, Producer Prices
Increasing Short-Term Inflation Expectations Weigh on US Equity Indexes Ahead of Consumer, Producer Prices
May 13, 2024
01:32 PM EDT, 05/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes traded mixed after midday on Monday as expectations for inflation one year ahead increased, adding to concern near-term price pressures are growing in the economy. The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% at 5,218.1, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 39,430.2. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to...
Fed's Jefferson flags challenges on communications front
Fed's Jefferson flags challenges on communications front
May 13, 2024
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice-chair Phillip Jefferson said Monday that while it is important for a central bank to communicate clearly with the public, there are times when those communications can get muddled. It's widely accepted that clear communications enhances how effective central bank policies are because clear communication can affect the expected path of interest rates and financial conditions...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved