On last Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to Tirupati-Tirumala to seek the blessings of Lord Balaji. At the airport, Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy received Modi and bowed down low in a gesture that would indicate that he was seeking the blessings of the Prime Minister. Modi smiled in a benefic manner that indicated that Jagan indeed had his blessings. Though unsaid it’s an alliance that benefits both Jagan and Modi. Jagan has inherited a state that requires a lot of central assistance for developing fast and also the blessings of the powers –that- be to get out of the CBI noose which hangs around his neck in the form of several cases. If convicted he can land in jail for many years.

After being royally ditched by then Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu who suddenly excised his party’s two-decade-old alliance with BJP ahead of the elections, Modi was left high and dry. Very miffed at this because BJP had depended on Naidu to take care of their interest and had not built the party in Andhra Pradesh, Modi moved in to decimate Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in the last elections. Sources suggest that the BJP tacitly supported Jagan and helped him ally with Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao who- to put it mildly, hates Naidu.

Jagan, on his own, embarked on a long padayatra spread over months to traverse large parts of Andhra Pradesh and bonding with the rural populace in the process. He especially focused on SCs/ STs and minorities to build his own equity. This padayatra was reminiscent on the one undertaken by his father Y S Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) in 2003 that brought him to power. Jagan’s raw energy was assisted by focused strategies drawn by former Modi aide Prashant Kishore whose services he had hired for the last two years. The result: Jagan romped into power with 151 MLAs in a total of 175 assembly seats and 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the just held elections. But the learning’s of the padayatra has been enormous: it has helped Jagan understand first- hand the problems of the poor and underprivileged. And in power now, Jagan has already begun with a loud bang appointing 5 deputy chief ministers. While one of them is a SC, another is a ST, the third is from the minority community and the fourth is from the backward community. The fifth deputy Chief Minister is a Kapu, a community that is seen as upwardly mobile but not politically represented enough. He has already announced that his ministers will change in two and a half years to give more MLAs to have a chance. Highly populist that the move is (no other chief minister has ever had more than two deputy chief ministers; even Naidu had two) it will help to consolidate Jagan’s grip among the voters in Andhra Pradesh and create a new support base in a state where politics is inordinately caste based.

The Telugu Desam Party’s politics was based on the support of Kammas, a highly enterprising community who have transitioned from being farmers to be prosperous businessmen and contractors. In the last five years, Naidu’s regime was seen as blatantly promoting Kammas much to the chagrin of others. As an example, Naidu made Amaravati the new capital of Andhra Pradesh acquiring into acres of highly productive farmland on the banks of the River Krishna. Why? The story has it that most of the land belonged to rich Kammas who had migrated to the US and Naidu bought the land at high prices to benefit them. True or not, such stories have stuck on, making Naidu highly unpopular in the new Andhra Pradesh.

The other dominating community in Andhra Pradesh is that of Reddys to whom Jagan himself belongs. The Reddys have traditionally been on the side of the Congress but now shifted to YSR Congress of Jagan. But to ensure that his government is not seen as a manifestation of Reddy raj, Jagan has limited the Reddys to one ministerial berth.

Though the BJP is now tacitly supporting Jagan this may not continue forever. The BJP’s game is to break the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) by poaching on the latter’s support base and strengthen their party. Since Naidu – at over 70 is past his prime and his son Lokesh (being assiduously promoted by him) is seen as not up to the mark, this is perceived as distinctly possible. It is also perceived that till BJP strengthens itself Jagan will be allowed to continue unhindered. Jagan also probably aware of this and would want to ramp his support base rapidly so that dislodging him in the next election is next to impossible. It will be interesting to see how things pan out in the next few years.

Kingshuk Nag is an author and journalist.

First Published:Jun 11, 2019 7:36 AM IST