The global markets reacted severely to recession fears last week. The dollar index surged nearly 2 percent in a week to a fresh 20-year high of 108.7. The 10-year yield rose to its highest indicating front-loaded rate hikes by the Fed and back-ended recession fears. Things improved on Friday, but emerging markets (EMs) currencies like the rupee are still on the edge.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 Fx Research & North America-Macro Strategy, Standard Chartered spoke at length on how to think about Fed rate hikes, recession fears, the dollar and our rupee.

He said that the rupee could slip up to 81 against the US dollar. “We expect it to close the Q3 at 81, so there is still an upside to the dollar rupee. The rupee may get a breather if Friday, July 15, optimism continues into Monday. But the current account issues are there, oil price issues are there all the things that have been acting to weaken the rupee are kind of still in place. They are largely priced in but in our view not fully priced in,” said Englander.

Also Read: D-Street Week Ahead: Corporate earnings, global cues and rupee likely to influence market

Talking about inflation, Englander said that a weak currency in a high inflation environment does not do any good. He added that Asian central banks have been watching their current currencies carefully to make sure that they do not depreciate much.

He further feels that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking rates after a 50 bps hike in September.

Also Read: Rupee inches higher against US dollar

Meanwhile, B Prasanna of ICICI Bank said that the rupee is likely to benefit from lower crude prices, a temporary pause in collar strength, and hedging flows from exporters to trade between Rs 79.30-80.10/USD in the coming week.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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