07:41 AM EST, 03/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for February at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Canada saw booming job growth through the turn of the year, with the three-month 210,000 surge the largest on record, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank noted that, coupled with slowing population growth -- though there's more to come on that front -- the job gains helped pull the jobless rate down from November's 6.9% peak.

However, February isn't expected to see the same hiring exuberance, with just 10,000 net new jobs expected, stated BMO. The combination of payback from the prior strength, tariff threats and extreme winter weather likely weighed on hiring and could also limit labor force growth.

Accordingly, despite the small anticipated headline increase, the unemployment rate is expected to move up only one tick to 6.7%, pointed out the bank. An anticipated continued slowing of population growth will also serve to ease the increase in the labor force. Hours worked could see a third straight month of solid gains, as firms ramp up production as best they can ahead of potential tariffs.

Finally, wage growth has slowed sharply in the past three months, which is consistent with a loose labor market.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is flat early Friday, added BMO. Since the end of January -- ahead of the Feb.1st United States President Donald Trump executive order imposing tariffs on Canada -- the Canadian dollar is trading slightly higher.

The bank pointed out that the U.S. trade war is good for "absolutely nothing." After another day of rhetoric and and another day of concessions by the U.S. concerning tariffs on Canada and Mexico means the countries are pretty much still right where they started.

BMO said 'pretty much' because, technically, Canadian exports to the U.S. that aren't compliant under USMCA -- in other words, domestic content requirements, etc. -- will still be subject to 25% tariffs and 10% for potash and energy. But, by all reports, much of the non-compliant trade -- often just absorbing minimal tariffs under Most Favored Nation status -- could be made compliant with relative ease.

"A lot of bark, but still no bite," according to the bank. However, the impact on business and consumer confidence is real, with implications on both sides of the border.