NEW YORK/LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - Hershey,
Mondelez ( MDLZ ) and other confection-makers are employing
promotions and pitching more non-chocolate Easter treats like
cookies 'n' cream bunnies at a time when soaring cocoa prices
threaten their profits and shoppers balk at high prices.
With shoppers' "impulse buys" of chocolate and candy at
convenience stores and in grocery checkout lines down, according
to industry data, special occasions like Easter and Halloween
are increasingly important to the companies' sales.
Cocoa prices have tripled over the past 12 months
thanks to bean disease in West Africa, which continues to
worsen, meaning companies are not expected to get relief anytime
soon. Sugar prices are also up some 7%.
Chocolate makers set their plans for this Easter last year,
and have said they will hike prices again to cover the cocoa
crunch. The companies face additional pressure on their profit
margins as their hedges protecting commodity costs expire later
this year and next.
But, the price hikes are coming at a delicate time as
inflation-weary consumers are already pushing back.
That makes seasonal sales key. Easter sales of candy in the
United States, the world's biggest chocolate consumer, are
expected to at least reach last year's total of about $5.4
billion, although this will be driven mostly by price increases
not volumes sold, according to the National Confectioners
Association.
Easter is the third-biggest occasion in the United States
for buying chocolate and candies, with Halloween taking the top
spot, followed by the winter holidays, according to the
confectioners association.
"People will buy during the holidays, but they will cut out
impulse buying," through the year, said David Branch, a sector
manager focusing on cocoa at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
Data from the National Confectioners Association shows that
last year, the volume of chocolate and candy sold for everyday
occasions fell 3.6% compared to 2022. Volumes of chocolate and
candy sold for seasonal occasions like Easter rose slightly by
0.1%.
Branch projects that given the continued inflation in cocoa,
the trend will continue.
Hershey is shipping more non-cocoa treats to retailers this
Easter in addition to its iconic Reese's chocolate bunnies and
eggs. It is introducing a new six-pack of cookies 'n' cream
bunnies, offering full-sized Kit Kat lemon crisp bars and mixing
Haribo gummy bears with chocolate bars in its assortment bags.
Hershey spokesperson Allison Kleinfelter said consumers are
continuing to buy seasonal products because parents want to
preserve traditions like Easter baskets filled with chocolate
bunnies and egg hunts.
The non-chocolate Easter offerings have no connection to
current cocoa prices, she added.
Simon Crowther, marketing director for seasonal
confectionery UK at Mondelez ( MDLZ ) told Reuters the Oreo cookie-maker
has introduced a new "Cadbury Ultimate Egg" range, and a premium
Toblerone "Edgy Egg," aimed at older families and upmarket
shoppers who may be more willing to splurge on chocolate.
PUSHING INVENTORY
U.S. retailers have increased discounts on Cadbury, Reese's,
Hershey's, M&Ms and Lindt this Easter versus last, according to
research analytics firm Dataweave.
Big box store Target ( TGT ) and supermarket chain Kroger ( KR )
are also offering bigger discounts on Easter candy this
year compared to last, according to the firm. At Target ( TGT ) in New
York in early March, Reese's mini eggs unwrapped, another new
product for this season, and bunnies were buy one, get one for
50%.
A Kroger ( KR ) spokesperson said the grocer updated its strategy
to include more frequent promotions on top-selling brand and
pack sizes.
John Ament, an independent consultant and former global
vice president of cocoa at M&Ms maker Mars, said there is no
doubt that chocolate will be more heavily discounted this Easter
compared to last because consumers are weary of price increases.
Chocolate makers have already pushed through price
increases, "So this Easter will be more expensive than last
year, and there's less consumer appetite to spend," he said.
He added that this year's holiday will be tougher than
2023's because of the hikes.
"The category will see slower if any growth in the coming
year," he said.
Chocolate firms tend to hedge their raw material purchases
up to 12 months in advance, and with the bulk of the cocoa
price surge happening this quarter, current chocolate making
costs will come to be seen as low at the end of the year.
Even so, it's getting tougher to push through price hikes.
Data from Nielsen shows the price per unit of chocolate in the
U.S. rose 10.4% in the year to early March, versus a 14.3% gain
in the same period a year earlier.
A Mondelez ( MDLZ )' spokesperson told Reuters that as input costs
rise this year, the company will consider not just price hikes
but "changing the unit weights" of its chocolates - a technique
commonly known as "shrinkflation."
"We've had a couple of years now of strong price increases
in chocolate and you tend to find in the first year, the
elasticity is okay, in the second year it gets worse, and now
we're in a third year, its going to be awful," said Kepler
Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox.
He said premium chocolate makers like Lindt will
likely fare better because the already high mark-up on their
chocolate means they might be able to hike prices less, in
percentage terms, than regular chocolate makers.
But he added: "Even they will see sales volume pressure, its
not going to be an easy year for them."
Mass-market chocolatiers like Mondelez ( MDLZ ) are also more
likely to invest in brands not tied to cocoa, consultant Ament
said. The Chicago-based company also sells crackers, cookies and
other snacks.