08:56 AM EST, 02/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- After swapping Section 122 tariffs for IEEPA tariffs in United States President Donald Trump's press conference on Friday, the White House released the executive orders and fact sheet later that day, said Scotiabank.

At first, it was a tentative plus for Canada and Mexico to see U.S. -- the developed world's most reluctant trading nation -- easing off some of the charges for now, noted the bank.

Then on Saturday, Trump changed his mind in a social media post that lashed out at the Supreme Court again and raised the rate to 15%. There is, however, no accompanying executive order to go with that increase.

Assuming that the rate does get officially changed to 15%, Scotiabank refreshed its calculations for effective tariff rates. Key is that CUSMA/USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt from the 15% section 122 tariff that Trump is using to replace IEEPA tariffs. Also exempt from the 15% Section 122 tariff will be Section 232 tariffs.

In addition, the Section 122 tariff won't stack on top of existing sector-specific tariffs.

Since almost 90% of Canada-U.S. trade is compliant and duty-free, this means that around 13%+ of the potential 15 percentage points of the Section 122 tariff won't apply, stated the bank. Mexico's compliance is lower and so more of the 15% rate will flow through.

This means that the average effective tariff rate imposed on Canadian exports of goods to the U.S. will drop from 7.5% to 6.9%. On exports of goods and services to the U.S., it goes from 6.3% to 5.85%.

Canada's overall average effective tariff rate on all exports to everywhere in the world dropped from 4.5% to 4.2%. This isn't a debilitating shock, pointed out Scotiabank.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) at 1.37 from 1.20 coming out of the pandemic, alongside last fall's Bank of Canada insurance cuts, fiscal stimulus and supportive commodity prices -- especially if turmoil escalates in the Middle East -- all help to insulate the economy from the effects as it adjusts to a more isolationist, protectionist and insular U.S.

The bigger risk to Canada than tariff rates is if the cracks in the outlook for the U.S. economy continue to get bigger, added the bank.

As for the U.S., the tariff rate imposed on its own imports of goods and services from around the world went from 12.9% (15.9% on goods) before the Supreme Court ruling on Friday and Trump's changes to 12.3% (15.1% goods) after all was said and done.

For Mexico, the effective tariff rate went from 7.3% on all exports to the world (8.8% to the U.S.) to 6.4% (and 7.8%).