Assembly election results in India can often pass off with little excitement. Sure, the results of some state elections are closely watched because they hold key to the country’s economic fortunes or they presage a nationwide political drift.

But for the sheer timing, the results of the assembly elections in five Indian states that will be brought live on December 11 are paramount. The general elections are only a few months away and these results will offer a glimpse at which way the electoral wind is blowing.

Also read: What is really at stake for BJP and Congress?

Of course, plenty could change by the time general elections are upon us and it is difficult to eke out a common thread to the voting patterns of every state electorate.

Yet, these election results are vital for the following reasons:

Clues To What The Voter Is Thinking

The results will be taken as a clue to the national mood of voters heading into the general election in 2019 and offer insights into the voting patterns among the important suburban and rural constituencies. and the effectiveness of the Trump tax cut as a campaign issue.

Clues To What The Politician Is Thinking

These elections are also being watched closely to learn whether new political alliances will be formed or whether incumbents of one party will jump ship to another. Some allies of the BJP could distance themselves from the ruling party or turn up their support. Every party is expected to rethink their approach to campaigning based on how the results pan out.

Impact On Markets

Despite the unreliability of exit polls, the suggestion that the BJP heading for defeat in Rajasthan while Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh were too close to call has weakened markets. Note that the outlook for Indian stocks for 2019 has been downgraded for the first time this year, according to a Reuters poll of strategists who expect the market to recoup its recent losses only once uncertainty around next year’s elections fade. Investors and businessmen like stability and any result that throws up uncertainty is expected to have a bearing on how the markets will behave in the year end and the new year.

Sheer Size Of The States

The five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana — where elections have been held together account for about a sixth of India’s total voters. This is a dream a sample size for the general elections. Though voters tend to give a different mandate in state and general elections, given that three of the five states are ruled by the BJP, these results will give a fair idea about how votes will swing next year.

The Modi Wave and Opposition Game Plan

The results will show if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is able to hold on to his popularity ahead of general elections due next year. The outcome will also indicate if the opposition parties, especially Congress president Rahul Gandhi, have been able to make any inroads. Both sides will have reconfigure their tactics based on the results.

First Published:Dec 10, 2018 2:07 PM IST