financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed expected to respond strongly to inflation, job market conditions, research shows
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed expected to respond strongly to inflation, job market conditions, research shows
Feb 24, 2025 10:30 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Investors and economists expect the U.S. central bank to respond "strongly and systematically"  to changes in inflation and the labor market, according to research published on Monday by the San Francisco Fed that underscores the current sensitivity of financial markets to U.S. economic data.

The Fed's perceived responsiveness to economic data picked up notably in 2022, driven first by inflation data and, last year, by labor market data, based on the analysis of perceptions embedded in professional forecasts and in bond market moves published in the regional Fed bank's latest Economic Letter.

The findings are in line with the Fed's actual response to inflation, which rose in 2021 but did not trigger any interest rate hikes until 2022. They also track with the Fed's reaction to labor market data, which weakened notably in the middle of last year and helped drive the Fed's decision to cut the policy rate by a full percentage point starting last September. 

The Fed's target policy rate is currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Recent weaker economic readings, including a survey released on Friday showing business activity fell to a 17-month low this month, have helped firm up market bets on two quarter-percentage-point reductions to the policy rate this year.

Worries about stalling economic growth appear to be outweighing fears of a resurgence in inflation, also evident in recent surveys, at least as far as market bets on how the Fed will react with monetary policy.

Interest rate futures contracts are currently priced for the first Fed rate cut this year to come in June, with the second to happen as early as October.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US may seek more stakes in strategic companies to counter China, Bessent says
US may seek more stakes in strategic companies to counter China, Bessent says
Oct 15, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Trump administration will seek to tighten control over strategic sectors by taking more equity stakes in key companies to counter China's economic policies and export restrictions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday. Bessent told a CNBC event that China's dramatic new restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets demonstrates the need for the U.S. to be...
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Oct 15, 2025
(Reuters) -Argentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo said he hopes to very soon execute a framework that will contain the terms of a $20 billion currency swap the U.S. recently agreed with Argentina's central bank, ideally before this month's midterm election. President Javier Milei is seeking to expand his minority presence in Argentina's legislature in the October 26 vote, and U.S....
US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
Oct 15, 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday, central bank data showed, and repurchase rates rose, suggesting tightness in meeting funding obligations with a large net Treasuries settlement due this week. That was the biggest daily borrowing from the Fed since the COVID-19 pandemic, excluding end-of-quarter periods. The SRF acts...
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Oct 15, 2025
(Reuters) -Argentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo said he hopes to very soon execute a framework that will contain the terms of a $20 billion currency swap the U.S. recently agreed with Argentina's central bank, ideally before this month's midterm election. President Javier Milei is seeking to expand his minority presence in Argentina's legislature in the October 26 vote, and U.S....
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved