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Fed Not on 'Preset Course' to Cut Rates, Chair Powell Says
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Fed Not on 'Preset Course' to Cut Rates, Chair Powell Says
Oct 2, 2024 11:48 PM

03:36 PM EDT, 09/30/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US monetary policy is not on a "preset course," with any further adjustment in interest rates to be determined by incoming economic data on a meeting-by-meeting basis, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday.

Earlier this month, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%. A Bloomberg-compiled consensus had indicated a 25-basis-point reduction. Policymakers tightened monetary policy from March 2022 through July 2023 to tame inflation.

"Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course," Powell said Monday in remarks prepared for a National Association for Business Economics meeting in Tennessee. "The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting."

Inflation is now much closer to policymakers' 2% target, while the risks to achieving their employment and inflation objectives are "roughly in balance," he said. Housing services inflation is easing "sluggishly," and the growth rate in rents charged to new tenants continues to be low, Powell said. "As long as that remains the case, housing services inflation will continue to decline."

Labor market conditions have "clearly cooled" over the last 12 months, while the unemployment rate has reached 4.2%, which is "still low" by past standards, according to Powell. "We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2% inflation."

The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections showed earlier this month that members trimmed their median federal funds rate outlooks from 2024 through 2026 and raised their unemployment rate expectations.

"As we consider additional policy adjustments, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," Powell said Monday.

The odds that policymakers will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in November jumped to 67% Monday from 47% Friday, while the probability of a bigger 50-basis-point reduction fell to 33% from 53%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected to show Friday that the economy added 146,000 jobs this month, compared with a 142,000 gain reported in August, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus.

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