financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed officials at last meeting saw price pressures in decline, minutes show
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed officials at last meeting saw price pressures in decline, minutes show
Jul 3, 2024 2:13 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting acknowledged the U.S. economy appeared to be slowing and that "price pressures were diminishing," but still counseled a wait-and-see approach before committing to interest rate cuts, according to minutes of the June 11-12 session.

The minutes, which were released on Wednesday, noted in particular a weak May reading in the consumer price index as one among "a number of developments in the product and labor markets" that supported a view that inflation was falling.

Wage growth had slowed, a few participants noted, while others pointed to price cutting among major retailers and reports from their own business contacts that "pricing power had declined."

But if the narrative around inflation pointed to faith that it was on the way down, U.S. central bank policymakers weren't ready, yet, to open the door to rate cuts.

Officials "did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward" the 2% target, the minutes said.

At the time of the meeting, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is used to set the Fed's inflation target, had been reported at 2.7% on a year-on-year basis for the month of April.

Policymakers still judged that reading to be "elevated" and representing only "modest" improvement since their last meeting, a fact that warranted continued tight monetary policy even though the economy appeared to be slowing and price pressures waning, the minutes said.

The U.S. government reported last week that the PCE fell to 2.6% in May.

"The vast majority of participants assessed that growth in economic activity appeared to be gradually cooling, and most participants remarked that they viewed the current policy stance as restrictive," and therefore likely to further curb the economy and inflation, the minutes said.

But in voting to keep the policy rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range where it has now been for a year, "participants noted that progress in reducing inflation had been slower this year than they had expected last December," the minutes said, with "some participants" emphasizing the need for patience before cutting rates, and "several" citing the possible need to raise rates further if inflation resurged.

Yet the minutes "lean dovish," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, wrote in a note, with the emphasis on the number of factors aligning to lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the minutes reflected a central bank that was "undogmatic" in its view of the economy and seemingly poised to react fast to any coming turns in the data.

The Fed "remains in no rush to start easing, but minds will change quickly if, as we expect, employment growth slows and inflation continues to moderate," Shepherdson wrote, projecting the Fed will cut rates much faster than many expect, by a full 1.25 percentage points by the end of this year, if job growth declines as much as he anticipates.

Investors broadly expect a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 meeting and another one in December.

POLICY IN TRANSITION

The risk of a jobs slowdown also was noted in the minutes, as was the need for Fed officials to prepare the public and investors for a number of possible economic outcomes.

Many Fed officials have begun speaking in terms of alternate "scenarios" to frame their policy views, and the minutes put that approach at the center of the discussion.

"Participants emphasized the importance of conditioning future policy decisions on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the minutes noted, and downplaying any sense that decisions were on a "preset path."

Among those possibilities, increasingly, is the risk that the job market might slow much faster than anticipated.

"Several participants specifically emphasized that with the labor market normalizing, a further weakening of demand may not generate a larger unemployment response than in the recent past when lower demand for labor was felt relatively more through fewer job openings," the minutes said, citing an argument that has been sketched out in detail by Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

After higher-than-anticipated inflation early this year raised fears the Fed might again be a step behind in its battle against rising prices, the minutes seemed to confirm the transition towards looser monetary policy remains underway, but cautiously so.

Data released on June 12 showed the CPI had not risen at all in May on a month-to-month basis, an encouraging development that came late in the Fed's policy deliberations.

Some market players had been surprised the more favorable data was not reflected more fully in the Fed forecasts released at last month's meeting.

The U.S. central bank will hold its next policy meeting on July 30-31, when it is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Policymakers by then will get an update on the labor market with the release on Friday of the employment report for June, the release of the CPI for June on July 11 and an initial estimate of second-quarter economic growth on July 25.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
With the White House watching, Fed's Powell to hint yes or no on rate cuts
With the White House watching, Fed's Powell to hint yes or no on rate cuts
Aug 22, 2025
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech to the annual Jackson Hole economic conference on Friday comes amid unprecedented pressure on the central bank from President Donald Trump, but mixed economic data may pull Powell toward a middle ground that leaves major questions unresolved. Investors are expecting and Trump is demanding a rate cut when the...
Mid-Atlantic Manufacturing Contracts, Prices Paid Index Hits Highest Since May 2022, Philadelphia Fed Says
Mid-Atlantic Manufacturing Contracts, Prices Paid Index Hits Highest Since May 2022, Philadelphia Fed Says
Aug 21, 2025
03:47 PM EDT, 08/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Manufacturing activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly swung into contraction territory in August, while the prices paid index hit the highest in more than three years, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed Thursday. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey's headline gauge for activity was at minus 0.3 this month,...
US continues visa vetting even after admission, official says
US continues visa vetting even after admission, official says
Aug 21, 2025
(Reuters) -The U.S. State Department's continuous vetting applies to all of the more than 55 million foreigners who currently hold valid U.S. visas, a department official said on Thursday, including those who have already been admitted to enter the country. The State Department revokes visas any time there are indications of a potential ineligibility, which includes things like any indicators...
Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Moment: Crypto Traders See 85% Rate Cut Odds In 2025, While Morgan Stanley Says Fed Will Stay On The Sideline
Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Moment: Crypto Traders See 85% Rate Cut Odds In 2025, While Morgan Stanley Says Fed Will Stay On The Sideline
Aug 21, 2025
Ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's pivotal Jackson Hole address on Friday, cryptocurrency bettors are pricing in more than an 80% chance that the central bank cuts interest rates this year. Polymarket Bettors Confident Of Rate Cuts On the prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood that the Fed loosens its monetary policy on or before Dec. 31 stood at 85%...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved