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Federal Reserve Watch for May 7: Kashkari Sees Rates Elevated for Longer to Bring Down Inflation
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Federal Reserve Watch for May 7: Kashkari Sees Rates Elevated for Longer to Bring Down Inflation
May 7, 2024 12:35 PM

03:07 PM EDT, 05/07/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (nonvoter) wrote in an essay that the recent lack of progress on inflation may be the result of monetary policy not being as restrictive as it appears compared with the neutral rate, resulting in the FOMC needing to do more to slow demand and inflation.

Later in the day, Kashkari reiterated that interest rates may need to remain elevated for longer to bring down inflation, possibly all year, Reuters reported.

Recent comments of note:

(May 6) Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (voter) said he is "optimistic" that the current level of the federal funds rate is restrictive enough to slow demand and bring down inflation, and the FOMC will be able to act if the economy overheats or slows more than expected.

(May 6) New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said monetary policy decisions will be based on incoming data, and rate cuts are likely as economic growth slows this year.

(May 3) Williams said the Fed is committed to returning inflation to its 2% goal, setting the stage for "sustained economic prosperity." At the same conference, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said that the Fed's quarterly dot plot forecasts should do a better job of pairing economic forecasts with the outlook for rate movements.

(May 3) Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voter) said that while it appears that policy is restrictive enough to bring down inflation, she will continue to monitor incoming data and make decisions meeting by meeting. Bowman said that upside risks to inflation remain, and she did not rule out raising the fed funds rate further to restore price stability, noting that policy is not on a preset course.

(May 1) The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5% but noted a lack of progress on the slowdown in inflation. The FOMC slowed the pace of runoff of its securities purchases beginning in June, lowering the cap on redemptions of Treasury securities to $25 billion from $60 billion and leaving the cap on agency mortgage-backed securities redemptions at $35 billion. The slowdown was smaller than expected and would be seen as dovish.

(May 1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (voter) said it's "unlikely" the next move by the FOMC would be a rate increase and the current level of policy restriction should be effective to bring down inflation. However, it is likely to take longer for the FOMC to gain enough confidence that inflation is moving effectively toward the 2% goal to consider rate decreases, he said.

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