financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Investors on edge as September reset exposes simmering US market risks
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Investors on edge as September reset exposes simmering US market risks
Sep 3, 2025 3:37 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are bracing for more volatility after Wall Street's summer lull gave way when markets reopened from the Labor Day unofficial end-of-summer holiday on Tuesday.

With September historically the worst month for the U.S. stock market, fears over Federal Reserve independence and President Donald Trump's tariff uncertainty were at the fore, converging to jolt stocks and bonds.

Market participants have long fretted over frothy valuations in stocks and corporate bonds, even as signs of a slowing economy piled up this summer.

At the same time, an escalating spat between Trump and the Federal Reserve raised concerns that political strong-arming of the U.S. central bank could rattle the U.S. Treasury market, even as markets had appeared to take that in stride in recent weeks.

On Tuesday, those simmering anxieties boiled over, reignited by fresh doubts about the legality of Trump's tariffs that emerged over the holiday weekend. That pushed stocks and bonds down, with many in the market anticipating more turbulence ahead of a pivotal jobs report on Friday.

"We have some uncertainty around these tariffs, and that's the trigger right now I think for the risk-off sentiment," said Seth Hickle, portfolio manager at Mindset Wealth Management.

"The concern is that the bond vigilantes will awaken and cause some chaos in the bond market, given the fact that we may have to send some of this tariff money back overseas," he said, referring to bond investors who punish bad policy by selling government debt. 

The CBOE Market Volatility index touched its highest mark in over four weeks, while the S&P 500 stock index dropped 0.7% on Tuesday. Long-dated Treasury yields spiked amid a global bond selloff.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices drop, surged by nearly five basis points to 4.269%, while 30-year yields surged to their highest since mid-July.

Rising yields can hurt stocks as bond returns become more attractive. Investors often look at 10-year yields of about 4.5% as a level at which demand for stocks wobbles.

They also tend to support the dollar, which staged a rebound from recent weakness on Tuesday. 

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said the surge in 30-year Treasury yields to nearly 5% was "helping to put some pressure on the tape." 

The court ruling against Trump's tariffs "has obviously put a little consternation in terms of what it means for the collection of tariff revenues here in the U.S. and help toward paring back our budget deficit," Luschini said.

SEPTEMBER CHILLS

Seasonal weakness may stem in part from investors returning from summer holidays cleaning up portfolios while also making tax and other adjustments ahead of the end of the year.

Over the past 35 years, September has ranked as the worst-performing month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.8% during that period, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The index has fallen in 18 of those 35 Septembers, the only month to have been down more times than up in that period, according to the Almanac.

Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, said a risk-off move was largely expected this month, with heavy debt issuance in credit markets on Tuesday exacerbating the selloff in government debt as investors reallocated funds to corporate debt.

"Our bias has been to be lightening up on risk through the summer as valuations ground tighter," he said.

Corporate bond spreads -- the premium over U.S. Treasury yields that highly rated companies must pay to borrow -- hit their tightest-ever at 75 basis points last month, according to the ICE BofA Corporate Index.

"Given the lack of volatility that we've been seeing and where spread levels were, it seemed like the more likely case was to have some more volatility," Hoffmann said.

Friday's August jobs data will be crucial for investors to assess how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months, although continued inflation pressures could limit its ability to come to Wall Street's rescue.

Investors also will be watching this week's confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran, a close Trump ally and his pick for a temporary Fed post, replacing Adriana Kugler who resigned on August 1. His appointment comes as Trump escalates attacks on the Fed, including relentless criticism of Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, and a push to remove Governor Lisa Cook.

"The market sees the possibility of a less independent central bank and there's going to be implications because of that," said Josh Chastant, portfolio manager for public markets at GuideStone Funds.

Investors also look for alternative assets that can help protect portfolios in volatile markets. Gold bullion rose to a record high near $3,540 an ounce on Tuesday.  

"This year, gold and bitcoin are both up, not one or the other," said Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.

The two assets - one historically viewed as a hedge, the other as a high-volatility strategy - converge when it comes to the U.S. dollar, he noted. "Both offer an alternative to fiat currencies and de-dollarization."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
From leadership to regulation on illegal fishing: All that India managed to win at the WTO
From leadership to regulation on illegal fishing: All that India managed to win at the WTO
Jun 17, 2022
Union Minister Piyush Goyal said this will be the first Ministerial Conference when India set the agenda. After the WTO meet, he said solutions were discussed and consensus was achieved on several issues including fisheries, food security and COVID-19 preparedness.
WTO Ministerial meet in Geneva extended by a day
WTO Ministerial meet in Geneva extended by a day
Jun 15, 2022
WTO's Ministerial meet in Geneva has extended negotiations by another day to reach a consensus on key global trade issues. Many WTO members have objected to India’s stance on food and fishing issues. But the Indian contingent stands firm on its demand to ensure food security and putting an end to fishing subsidies.
From Bill Gates to Elon Musk, these famous people have hinted at an 'impending' recession in the US
From Bill Gates to Elon Musk, these famous people have hinted at an 'impending' recession in the US
Jun 20, 2022
The US Federal Reserve recently set markets scrambling as it hiked its key policy rates by 75 basis points. These hikes come as the Joe Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are making a host of policy decisions to tackle a 40-year record high inflation. While these decisions may well control the red-hot rates, many predict that the pendulum would swing too far in the other direction and result in a recession in the US economy. A recent survey of economists, fund managers and investment strategists by CNBC saw 57 percent of the respondents stating that they expected the US to bear a period of recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes. August 2023 is the average month when the respondents expect the recession to arrive and over half believe that it would be a moderate recession. Here are some of the biggest names who see the US heading for a recession in the coming months-
Expect India-EU FTA to be completed by 2024, says Danish envoy
Expect India-EU FTA to be completed by 2024, says Danish envoy
Jul 1, 2022
The first round of talks for a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the European Union (EU) has concluded. This is the second attempt by both sides to seal a free trade deal. Negotiations had first started in 2007 and had continued till 2013 after which there was no action for 8 years.
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved