financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Price cuts, weaker spending may boost Fed's faith in inflation outlook
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Price cuts, weaker spending may boost Fed's faith in inflation outlook
May 31, 2024 5:37 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A new round of price cuts by major U.S. retailers and data showing a consumer spending slowdown may boost the Federal Reserve's confidence in falling inflation and take the edge off of corporate profits that have grabbed a larger share of national income since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the U.S. economy grew more slowly than initially thought, expanding at a 1.3% annual rate over the first three months of the year versus an initial estimate of 1.6%.

Much of the change came from a lowered pace of consumer spending, indicating a core prop of the economy may be slowing in line with Fed officials' expectations and possibly helping reduce inflation as well.

Fresh inflation data will be released on Friday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the personal consumption expenditures price index to have risen at a 2.7% annual rate in April, matching the gain in March. The Fed uses PCE inflation to set its 2% inflation target, and policymakers have been worried that progress towards that level may have stalled after a steady decline from the peak above 7% in June 2022.

The U.S. central bank is expected at its June 11-12 policy meeting to keep its benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since last July. Fed officials say the next move on rates will likely be to lower them, but not until they feel assured inflation will resume its decline to 2%.

The revised gross domestic product data, which also slightly lowered estimates of first-quarter inflation, may help the case, as could a recent string of corporate price-cut announcements.

"Softer overall demand and lower inflation in the first quarter should be more of a relief for the Fed and the market rather than a concern" of a fast economic slide, said Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM US, who argued the new data should bolster the case for Fed rate cuts coming "sooner rather than later."

LANDSCAPE SHIFT

Walgreens, saying it "understands our customers are under financial strain," this week joined Target ( TGT ), Walmart ( WMT ) and other retailers in broad price cuts focused on food and other staples.

Fed officials have said they feel consumers are in broadly good shape, with unemployment low and wages rising. But they've also noted signs of stress among lower-income households, including rising loan default rates and credit card borrowing.

The price cuts announced this month may show that same sense taking hold in corporate executive suites and touching off the sort of dynamic Fed policymakers expected would eventually take hold: A fight for market share as pandemic-era pricing power wanes, along with the elevated profits that followed it.

The data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday included an estimate of corporate profits for the first three months of the year. Even though earnings fell slightly, corporate profits continued to take an elevated share of the income earned by all workers and businesses combined.

Corporations' share of income climbed during the pandemic as snarled supply chains and pandemic-era transfer payments to individuals left home-bound consumers with money to spend on goods that had become scarce - a recipe for price hikes and higher margins. When pandemic restrictions were lifted and in-person events resumed, that surplus purchasing power shifted to travel, restaurants and other services - and inflation spiked there as well.

Fed officials in recent weeks have said they think the landscape has shifted, with businesses generally saying their capacity to raise prices is diminished compared to the last two years. In the Fed's most recent "Beige Book" collection of anecdotes about the economy, there was a widespread sense of consumers becoming more selective and putting pressure on firms.

"Consumers are becoming more price-conscious, likely putting pressure on profit margins. We should expect more discounts and incentives as some consumers struggle with persistently high prices," Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial, said after the release of the Fed report.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Regional Fed banks could be next front in Trump's pressure campaign
Regional Fed banks could be next front in Trump's pressure campaign
Nov 13, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The historically routine process of reappointing the Federal Reserve's 12 regional bank presidents is being watched for signs of becoming the newest challenge to the U.S. central bank's independence, as President Donald Trump seeks more influence over interest rates and other policies. The twice-a-decade proceeding ordinarily occurs without controversy and produces the same result: The regional bank chiefs...
US retail holiday job postings slump, Indeed says
US retail holiday job postings slump, Indeed says
Nov 13, 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Retail-related job postings, including hospitality, retail shops and food services, dropped 16% in October compared to last year, according to the Indeed Hiring Lab, a concerning sign for the spending outlook for the important holiday shopping season. The retail hiring slump falls below pre-pandemic levels for seasonal hiring, providing an inkling into U.S. retailers' demand expectations for...
December Fed Rate Cut: A Toss-Up
December Fed Rate Cut: A Toss-Up
Nov 13, 2025
Federal Reserve rate cut odds for December have fallen to near coin toss levels, signaling rising uncertainty among investors ahead of the Dec. 10 meeting, according to data source CME's FedWatch tool. Markets now price roughly a 52% chance of a 25 basis point cut, down sharply from 95% a month ago and 65% a week ago. A potential 25...
Odds of Fed rate cut in December on knife's edge as hawks, doves face off
Odds of Fed rate cut in December on knife's edge as hawks, doves face off
Nov 13, 2025
SAN FRANCISCO/DUBLIN, Ireland (Reuters) -Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to near even. As if to underscore that knife-edge...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved