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Stocks Poised to Start Second Half Weaker as Trade, Trump Tax Bill Take Stage; Investors Eye Jobs Data
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Stocks Poised to Start Second Half Weaker as Trade, Trump Tax Bill Take Stage; Investors Eye Jobs Data
Jul 1, 2025 4:47 AM

07:28 AM EDT, 07/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equities were set to start the second half of 2025 on a weaker note with futures tracking in the red before Tuesday's open as investors eye trade deadlines and an ongoing vote in Washington, DC, on President Donald Trump's key tax bill.

The S&P 500 declined 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% and the Nasdaq was off 0.3% in premarket activity. The Nasdaq finished Monday in the green for the sixth consecutive trading session, while the S&P 500 and Dow were each up for the third straight day.

With US markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, traders are also looking at a busy, shortened slate of data releases, especially labor market updates.

Trump's top trade officials are looking for narrower phased agreements with the most engaged countries before July 9, when reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to come into effect, instead of comprehensive deals, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing sources. Talks between the US and Canada on a potential trade deal resumed Monday, with an aim to finalize an agreement by July 21.

While trade talks carry on, investors are also watching Senate votes that are key to passing Trump's so-called "big, beautiful bill" on tax cuts and spending, as lawmakers cast ballots on amendments through the night.

US Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 2 basis points to 3.7% and the 10-year rate decreasing 3.3 basis points to 4.19%.

Data releases will also be eyed, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May scheduled for a 10 am ET release on Tuesday. The ADP Employment report for June is out Wednesday followed by the government's nonfarm payroll data for the same month on Thursday.

Employment gains in the US are likely to slow down in June sequentially, though not enough to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy at its next meeting, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Monday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak at 9:30 am.

Tuesday's economic calendar also has the Purchasing Managers' manufacturing index's final reading and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, both for last month, as well as the construction spending report for May.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were down 4.4% pre-bell as Trump and Chief Executive Elon Musk traded barbs on social media. Oracle (ORCL) nudged 0.2% higher as the company disclosed that it clinched a cloud services agreement, expected to boost annual revenue by more than $30 billion starting in fiscal 2028.

MSC Industrial Direct ( MSM ) reports its latest financial results before the bell, while Constellation Brands ( STZ ) posts earnings in the afterhours.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil inclined 0.4% to $65.35 a barrel before the opening bell. Gold increased 1.5% to $3,359 per troy ounce, while bitcoin fell 1.1% to $106,397.

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