Crypto ( CRCW ) markets enter the week with the near-term direction tied to whether easing U.S. inflation can keep the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy on hold and take pressure off the dollar into year-end.

Consumer price index data due Wednesday is the first test, but the larger question is whether weaker labor demand is beginning to outweigh price pressures still above the central bank’s target.

ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole say they expect a no-increase outcome to create a more supportive cross-asset backdrop.

“If we’re right on the Fed, the dollar should be due a benign decline into year-end in what should be a risk-positive climate,” they wrote in a report. A hotter CPI print would challenge that path and put Treasury yields and the dollar back at the center of crypto trading.

Geopolitical instability will keep on playing a role in crypto prices. As war in the Middle East threatens vital oil passageways, inflation expectations could increase and, along with them, interest-rate-hike expectations.

What to Watch

(All times ET) Crypto ( CRCW )Aug. 12: AI Financial Corporation ( AIFC ) says roughly 6.9 billion WLFI tokens covered by its original lock-up arrangements are expected to become fully transferable.Aug. 14: Second-quarter Form 13F filing deadline for U.S. institutional investment managers.MacroAug. 11, 12:30 a.m.: Royal Bank of Australia interest rate decision est. 4.35% (Prev. 4.35%)Aug. 11, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for July est. 4.07M (Prev. 4.09M)Aug. 12, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI YoY for July est. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%); MoM est. 0.1% (Prev. -0.4%)Aug. 13, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for July (Prev. 5.5%); Core PPIMoM est. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%)Aug. 13, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending Aug. 8 est. 198K (Prev. 199K)Aug. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims for period ending Aug. 1 (Prev. 1801K)Aug. 14, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. Retail Sales MoM for July est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)Aug. 14, 10:00 a.m.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for August (Prev. 54.4); 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (Prev. 4.2%)Aug. 16, 07:50 p.m.: Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel for Q2 est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)EarningsAug. 10: Trump Media & Technology Group ( DJT ) , post-marketAug. 10: Bitdeer Technology Solutions (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.33Aug. 10: Bakkt ( BKKT/WS ) , post-market, $0.03Aug. 10: Keel Infrastructure Corp. ( KEEL ) , pre-market, $Aug. 10: Sarplink (SBET), pre-market, $0.01Aug. 10: Exodus Movement ( EXOD ) , post-market, -$0.07Aug. 11: CoreWeave ( CRWV ) , post-market, -$1.17Aug. 11: Etoro Group ( ETOR ) , pre-market, $0.6Aug. 12: Twenty One Capital ( XXI ) Aug. 12: Securitize ( SECZ ) , post-marketAug. 13: Gemini Space Station ( GEMI ) , post-market, -$0.68

Token Events

Governance Votes & CallsLido DAO is voting to appoint Bryce Howarth as a director of the Lido Alliance BORG Foundation, replacing Adrian Cachinero Vasiljevic. Voting ends Aug. 10.QuickSwap is voting to temporarily increase the QuickSwap Foundation's share of protocol revenue from 30% to 80% for three months to fund protocol expansion and new product development. Voting ends Aug. 10.Seamless DAO is voting to permanently wind down operations and revoke all administrative control, transitioning the protocol into a dormant, withdrawal-only state. Voting ends Aug. 11.Decentraland DAO is voting on a non-binding poll to introduce term limits for DAO council members, with a suggested maximum of two consecutive two-year terms. Voting ends Aug. 11.GnosisDAO is voting to overhaul its governance structure by separating powers between a leadership service provider and an independent supervisory board, while introducing a strict 5% voting weight cap to enforce decentralization and comply with MiCA regulations. Voting ends Aug. 13.Lazy Summer DAO is voting to grant guardian roles and set expiration parameters on HyperEVM, enabling emergency pause capabilities for its fleets. Voting ends Aug. 11.UnlocksAug. 12: Pump (PUMP) to unlock 1.75% of its circulating supply worth $18.93 million.Aug. 15: Connext (CONX) to unlock 1.43% of its circulating supply worth $11.47 million.Aug. 16: YZY (YZY) to unlock 22.83% of its circulating supply worth $35.73 million.Token LaunchesAug. 12: AI Financial's ( AIFC ) roughly 6.9 billion WLFI tokens covered by the original lock-up arrangements are expected to become fully transferable.

Conferences

Aug. 11-13: Blockchain.RIO 2026 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)Aug. 14-15: Conviction 2026 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)