The U.S. economy is projected to grow modestly in 2026, though job creation is expected to stay weak, according to a new NABE survey.

Growth Edges Up, Risks Persist

The survey, conducted from Nov. 3 to Nov. 11, involved 42 professional forecasters. The median outlook is for a 2% growth in 2026, up from 1.8% in the previous October survey. This contrasts with the 1.3% growth rate projected in June, reported Reuters.

Growth is projected to be supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment, though the Trump administration's new import taxes could shave off a quarter percentage point or more. Economists also noted that stricter immigration enforcement is weighing on the outlook.

Inflation is now projected to finish the year at 2.9%, just under the 3% forecast in October and ease only marginally to 2.6% in 2026. Economists attribute a sizable share of this inflation to tariffs. Job gains are expected to stay subdued, with unemployment rising to 4.5% in early 2026 and holding at that level through year-end.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut in December, with only another half-point reduction anticipated next year, moving policy rates closer to neutral.

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Lutnick, Bessent Make Case For Strong Economy

The survey comes at a time when the U.S. economy grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the second quarter, its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023. On November 19, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised his GDP outlook for the real third quarter at 4.2%, from the previous 4.1%.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, on Friday, predicted a rapid expansion, touting a possible  "6% GDP growth" under President Donald Trump, citing a historic wave of manufacturing construction and tariff-driven capital investment. 

Meanwhile, on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News that the U.S. economy is not in recession despite rate-sensitive sectors like housing still struggling. However, Bessent stated that the 43-day-long shutdown caused a 1.5% hit to GDP.

Growing Speculation Over Recession

Bill Gross, the veteran investor and PIMCO co-founder, expects the Federal Reserve to deliver another rate cut in December. Gross argues that ongoing market volatility and the risk of further economic strain will push the Fed to act.

In October, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a 2026 recession is still possible, despite the currently strong U.S. GDP. He voiced concern that inflation may not cool as expected. His caution aligns with Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who says recession risks remain "uncomfortably high."

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.