12:46 PM EDT, 03/21/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US unexpectedly fell, while continuing claims rose, according to government data released Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims dropped by 2,000 to 210,000 in the week ended March 16, the US Department of Labor said. The consensus was for an increase to 213,000 in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The previous week's reading was upwardly revised by 3,000 to 212,000.

The four-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the prior week's average, which itself was revised up by 750 to 208,750. Unadjusted claims decreased by 12,730 on a weekly basis to 189,992, the lowest level since the week of Oct. 14, according to Jefferies.

"The Department of Labor revised the seasonal adjustment factors last week, and the post-revision data shows very little momentum in either the initial or continuing claims data," Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said. "Prior to the revision, it had looked like there was some friction developing with continuing claims in recent months, indicating that people who were laid off were (having) a harder time finding a new job. It is harder to make that case now."

For the week ended March 9, seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.81 million, below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.82 million. Continuing claims advanced by 4,000 from the previous week's level that was revised down by 8,000 to 1.8 million. The four-week moving average was 1.8 million, rising by 5,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised average.

New York saw the largest drop in initial claims for the week ended March 9 at 14,583, followed by Ohio and New Hampshire. The biggest increase was in Oregon, where claims inclined by 2,216, followed by California and Indiana, according to the Labor Department.

While weakness in the labor market has been forecast to emerge in response to a pullback in consumer spending, aggregate data suggest spending remained solid through the end of 2023, according to the Jefferies note.

January data for retail sales and real personal consumption expenditures showed "some of the first evidence" of a pullback, but "we will need to see this soft patch in consumer demand extend longer before it generates more job losses," Simons said.

"As weeks go by, we expect that more strain in labor market conditions is going to become evident, especially as middle-class households deal with slowing wage gains, inflation fatigue, and targeted layoffs aimed at cost-cutting and margin recapture," he said.