12:45 PM EST, 11/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
BTC has declined by 24% in the past month, down to $82.7K, while MSTR has declined 41% as the mNAV premium collapse continues. MSTR's mNAV premium has declined into our long-term target range (1.1x-1.25x) faster than anticipated and sits at 1.19x today. We also note that MSCI is currently evaluating whether BTC treasury companies belong in its indices, with MSTR's removal from these products leading to a nearly $3B outflow. We expect a decision by January 2026 from MSCI, but are increasingly concerned other index providers may remove MSTR from similar products as well (with up to $12B in potential outflows). We are now estimating a 7% BTC Yield in 2026 (670K by year-end), a $100,000 BTC target price, and MSTR maintaining a 1.15x mNAV premium (BTC/EV premium). We lower our target price by $115 to $210 per share. We now have increased concerns that a further 15% decline in BTC would lead to forced sales as convertible preferred shares fall out of the money and necessitate increased cash flow.