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Bets on 'Trump 2.0' winners and losers whip up markets
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Bets on 'Trump 2.0' winners and losers whip up markets
Nov 9, 2024 11:14 AM

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Dollar gains most since 2022

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Euro posts biggest drop in years

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Tariff-sensitive assets plunge

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Mexican peso drops

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Bitcoin roars to record

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US stock futures surge

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's rapid

confirmation as the next U.S. president propelled the dollar and

punished the euro as investors bet on tariffs on imports

affecting trade while tax cuts could benefit U.S. business.

U.S.

stock futures

rallied almost by the most in a year, while the

dollar was set for its largest one-day jump since 2022

.

Bitcoin

hit record highs and

Treasuries

were battered.

Trump's

pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes and slash regulations

encouraged investors to dive into a range of assets that looked

likely to benefit from such policies.

Markets that could suffer under tougher tariffs, including

those in some of the United States' major trading partners, bore

the brunt of the sell-off, pushing the Mexican peso to

its lowest in over two years, while the euro was set

for its largest one-day drop since March 2020.

Adding to the confidence in markets was Republicans winning

control of the U.S. Senate, ensuring Trump's party will control

at least one chamber of Congress next year, part of a potential

so-called "Red sweep".

"It's extremely early days to be drawing conclusions about

what a Trump presidency and potential clean sweep might mean for

the U.S. and global economy and financial markets. Certainly,

higher tariffs would involve greater inflation and less world

trade growth," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.

"With stocks, one of the primary drivers is Trump's promise

to reduce corporate taxes for companies that make goods in

America. And obviously, we've seen a bit increase in U.S. stock

futures and that's carried through to European markets as well."

European stocks rallied, led by defence shares and banks,

while renewable energy shares dropped.

The election could have far-reaching implications for tax

and trade policy, as well as U.S. institutions. The outcome

affects assets globally and could determine the outlook for U.S.

debt, the strength of the dollar and a host of industries that

make up the backbone of corporate America.

INTEREST RATES SEEN HIGHER

"The consequence is a higher path of rates," said Nick

Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset

Management in Singapore. He was buying bank shares in

anticipation that higher yields and stronger growth would

benefit their earnings.

Investors sold U.S. Treasuries, partly on the expectation

that higher tariffs would inevitably filter through to consumer

prices, but also because Trump's promises on spending risk

worsening the government's finances.

"Next year will be a year in which there'll be a lot of

discussion in terms of fiscal issues in the United States,"

Moelis ( MC ) vice chairman and managing director Eric Cantor told a

conference in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday as the election results

were trickling in.

Meanwhile, shares in Trump Media and Technology Group ( DJT )

surged in premarket trading, while those in Tesla

, headed by Trump supporter Elon Musk, jumped nearly

13%.

Bitcoin surged to a record high, betting on a softer line on

cryptocurrency regulation.

"This rally isn't just about the election; it's about the

fundamental shifts happening in the digital financial system, of

which bitcoin is the leader. People are waking up to the fact

that traditional systems are changing," said Nigel Green, chief

executive of deVere Group.

"Markets are growing confident that the election result will

be called and that a 'red sweep' of Congress is possible," said

Ben Emons, founder of Fedwatch Advisors in Washington.

The results so far suggested markets had gained clarity

faster than in 2020, when Joe Biden was announced the victor

some four days after election night.

"That's what markets have been most worried about, that

there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won," said Jamie

Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

(Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Suzanne McGee,

Michelle Conlin, Nupur Anand, Chibuike Oguh, Noel Randwich,

Saqib Ahmed, Saeed Azhar, Caroline Valetkevitch, Tom Westbrook,

Kevin Buckland, Megan Davies, Douglas Gillison, Carolina Mandl,

Lananh Nguyen, Sinead Cruise and Alex Cornwell; Writing by

Michelle Price and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Paritosh Bansal,

Sam Holmes, Peter Graff)

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