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CEE MARKETS-Weaker dollar ahead of US Fed decision props up CEE FX
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CEE MARKETS-Weaker dollar ahead of US Fed decision props up CEE FX
Sep 16, 2024 12:29 PM

WARSAW, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The forint continued to firm

on Monday as a weaker dollar ahead of the U.S. rates decision

boosted emerging market assets including Central Eastern

European currencies.

Markets are increasingly expecting an oversized

50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week,

putting pressure on the dollar and boosting investors' risk

appetite for riskier assets.

By 1002 GMT, the Hungarian forint was up 0.1%

against the euro to 394.20, firming for a fourth session

straight to erase losses from early last week.

"I think what is really important here is the dollar

weakening ahead of the FOMC decision this Wednesday," Peter

Virovacz, senior economist at ING in Budapest, said.

"A bigger and bigger share of market players are expecting a

50 basis point rate cut by the Fed and...this is possibly

spilling into the weaker dollar and generally improving outlook

for the whole CEE region from an FX perspective."

He called the forint's move against the euro "the usual

zigzagging between 393-398", adding that the Fed's decision

could have implications for the Hungarian National Bank, which

holds a policy decision meeting next week.

In Poland, the zloty also firmed 0.1% to 4.2740

per euro, returning to levels from early last week.

"It is possible that the zloty will weaken this week. The

FOMC meeting will be the key event. In the case of a small rate

cut by 25bps...the dollar could strengthen with a negative

impact on CEE currencies," Santander Bank Polska wrote in a

note.

The Czech crown traded 0.1% higher at 25.1350 per

euro, hovering near its lowest levels since late August.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1202 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

Czech Hungary Polish Romanian Serbian Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1575.19 The #VALUE! #VALUE!

unexpect

ed error

occurs

during

parsing

the

formula.

Budapest 72910.66 72075.48 +1.16% #VALUE!

Warsaw 2303.93 2330.89 -1.16% #VALUE!

Bucharest 17497.86 17477.86 +0.11% #VALUE!

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year 5-year 10-year Poland

2-year 5-year 10-year FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interban

k

Czech Rep 3.83 3.44 3.11 4.32

Hungary 6.10 5.61 5.07 6.47

Poland 5.73 5.27 4.68 5.85

Note: FRA are for ask prices

quotes

*************************************************

*************

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Shreya Biswas

)

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