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Equities Rise as Fed Minutes Indicate September Rate Cut Likely
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Equities Rise as Fed Minutes Indicate September Rate Cut Likely
Aug 22, 2024 3:41 AM

04:34 PM EDT, 08/21/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US benchmark equity indexes closed higher Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting indicated that an interest rate cut in September is likely.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% to 17,919, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% to 5,620.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1% to 40,890.5. Consumer discretionary and materials led the gainers among sectors, while financials and energy closed lower.

A "vast majority" of policymakers indicated last month that monetary policy easing in September would likely be appropriate if new data continued to be in line with expectations, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's July 30-31 meeting showed Wednesday.

"Participants viewed the incoming data as enhancing their confidence that inflation was moving toward the committee's objective," according to the minutes. At the meeting, the FOMC decided to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, its eighth straight pause.

The US two-year yield fell 6.1 basis points to 3.94% Wednesday, while the 10-year rate lost 1.7 basis points to 3.80%.

The US economy is estimated to have created 818,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously reported, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary revisions to its annual nonfarm payrolls data.

"Given that everything was weak in the latest July jobs report -- weak payrolls, rising unemployment, falling hours worked and cooling wages -- today's (BLS) update will only put more pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy," ING said in a report. "Momentum is being lost from an even weaker position than originally thought."

The odds of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut next month fell to 62% Wednesday from 71% Tuesday, while the probability of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction jumped to 38% from 29%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Markets will be closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for further clues regarding monetary policy strategy. The two-day event kicks off Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped 1.9% to $71.81 a barrel Wednesday. Commercial crude stockpiles in the US fell more than expected last week, government data showed Wednesday.

"The crude oil market sentiment remains under pressure as China's economic slowdown and the rapid adoption of (electric vehicles) and hybrid cars reduce fuel demand, leading to lower refinery runs and diminished oil demand," Saxo Bank said in a note.

In company news, Keysight Technologies ( KEYS ) shares jumped 14%, the biggest gain on the S&P. The electronics test and measurement equipment manufacturer late Tuesday posted better-than-expected fiscal Q3 results, while Chief Executive Officer Satish Dhanasekaran forecast H2 orders to be higher than the previous six-month period.

Target ( TGT ) shares rose 11%, the second-largest gain on the S&P, after the retailer raised its full-year earnings outlook amid improving trends across discretionary categories. Fiscal Q2 results exceeded market estimates.

American Express ( AXP ) shares fell 2.7%, the steepest decline on the Dow and the second-largest on the S&P. BofA Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing a "limited incremental upside given potential for subdued billings volume growth and current premium valuation."

Gold was little changed at $2,549.90 per troy ounce, while silver rose 0.3% to $29.60 per ounce.

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