Laurence Balanco of CLSA, Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner of Geosphere Capital Management and Saktiandi Supaat, executive VP, Head-Fx Research at Maybank discussed all the aspects of the global markets and the current sentiment in an interaction with CNBC-TV18.
NSE
On Nifty levels, Balanco said, “We still have the 10,000 area, which is the low seen back in February as well as in October 2019 – that’s the next big support area for the market.”
“We are extremely oversold in the near-term but we do not have any sign of downside momentum yet on Nifty. So any short-term rebound would likely result in another test for 10,000 area,” he added.
We expect the market to consolidate in a broad band now. However, it’s tough to take long calls on individual stocks till market stabilizes, said Balanco.
On the US market, Sanger said the rally in that market was partly driven by Trump's message. “President Trump is trying to have it both ways; on the one hand he keeps trying to say that coronavirus is not a big deal and on the other hand he keeps wanting to put a big package of support together. Therefore, the reason we are in a bear market is because to get the kind of fiscal help that the US economy needs, since we know that the Fed cutting rates is not enough – that is going to require a lot more pain from the market to be delivered to Congress and to the administration and therefore we skated-off just above 20 percent in terms of closing, I do not think we will be able to hold that.
"A full-fledged bear market is in store and probably one-two quarter of negative growth is in store for the US economy,” said Sanger, adding that they would consider nibbling a tad bit into quality stocks.
Supaat said the markets are expecting US Fed to cut rates by 75 bps. “It leads to an impression that there could be further demand weakness globally and also supply shock. So we know that this is a demand as well as supply economic shock compared to what we have seen in the global financial crisis,” Supaat added.
Speaking further about the US markets, Supaat said, “We have pockets of risks particularly in the corporate sector in the US and vulnerability in the energy sector, which may be exposed to some extent with sharp drop in oil prices over the past few days.”
Spreading of COVID-19 will have an impact on spending sentiments, said Supaat.