* Fed chair nominee Warsh wants Fed to hold fewer bonds
* Warsh reiterates smaller balance sheet means lower
rates
* Analyst see any balance sheet evolution as long-term
project
NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - Kevin Warsh, tapped by
President Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, told a
Senate panel on Tuesday he would work with the Treasury
Department to help achieve his goal of a smaller Fed balance
sheet, in an effort observers say would represent a long-term
project for the central bank.
"Working with the Treasury Secretary, we're going to have to
find a way in which we can take the balance sheet and make it
smaller," he said as part of his confirmation hearing to succeed
current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Warsh's opposition to large-sized Fed holdings rests on a
few fronts: He thinks it benefits Wall Street over Main Street,
while forcing the Fed to keep higher short-term rates than would
otherwise be the case. He also thinks that while using bond
buying during the financial crisis nearly two decades ago was
defensible, recent use cases aren't.
"The big balance sheet has become an ordinary, recurring
force" and "has been quite unhelpful, and is part of the reason
why the Fed is in the business of politics," Warsh said. If Fed
holdings were smaller, "I think interest rates could be lower,
inflation could be better, and the economy could be stronger,"
he said.
Warsh remained largely aspirational on how he'd get Fed holdings
down, but he said whatever the Fed would do under his command
would be well communicated and done "slowly and deliberatively."
Warsh's comments on the central bank's extensive holdings of
cash, bonds and other assets are among his first of real
substance on an issue that's become core to central bank
monetary policy making.
BIG BALANCE SHEET
Since the financial crisis, the Fed has used purchases of
Treasury and mortgage bonds to help calm financial markets in
times of high stress and to provide stimulus to the economy when
the interest rate target is near zero and can be cut no further.
This system and the tools to achieve it have seen Fed
holdings go from under a trillion dollars in the run-up to the
financial crisis starting in 2007 to a peak of $9 trillion in
2022, as the Fed navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. Fed holdings
now stand at $6.7 trillion and a recent New York Fed report
projected that based on technical factors Fed holdings could hit
$10 trillion by the end of 2035.
Most Fed officials are unconcerned by the size of Fed
holdings. For them, the most critical issue is that the rate
control system operated by the central bank works very well,
while robust levels of liquidity in the financial system help
protect against shocks.
The case against a large Fed balance sheet has centered on a few
concerns. For one, large holdings have driven the Fed into a
loss-making position it is still trying to dig out of, and while
that does not affect Fed operations, there are concerns it could
become a political problem for the central bank at some point.
Others worry large Fed holdings of bonds distort markets and
make the central bank too big a player in what would normally be
private markets.
If Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair, his efforts to cut Fed
holdings would challenge an interest rate management toolkit
that effectively limits how far the central bank can reduce its
holdings and maintain strong control over its interest rate
target.
COORDINATION ASPECT NOT YET CLEAR
Market participants said Warsh hasn't yet made clear how the
Fed and Treasury would work together on the balance sheet.
Derek Tang, an analyst at research firm LH Meyer, said he
believes "Warsh would like Treasury and the Fed to communicate
more clearly to each other what their respective plans" over
Treasury debt issuance, and to better coordinate their
respective positions.
Observers doubt however that Warsh would push the Fed to
sell Treasury debt.
"Warsh certainly seemed to suggest a gradual approach to
decreasing the balance sheet, which to me suggests that outright
asset sales are unlikely," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S.
rates strategy at TD Securities.
FRAMEWORK FORMING
Over recent weeks an effort inside and outside the Fed has laid
out a potential pathway to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, and
that emerging framework argues easing liquidity regulations and
doing more to induce usage of central bank liquidity facilities
would reduce demand for bank reserves, in turn allowing the Fed
to hold fewer assets.
Some have also argued that a smaller Fed balance sheet would
lead to higher long-term rates and that this increase in
restraint would allow policymakers to cut their interest rate
target to balance that out.
New York Fed President John Williams told reporters at the end
of March that higher long-term rates resulting from a smaller
Fed balance sheet theoretically opens the door to lower
short-term rates to offset those headwinds, but he cautioned it
is hard to measure in advance how much lower the central bank
rate target could go.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby, Editing by Franklin Paul and
Andrea Ricci )