A high base may impact JSW Steel's December quarter earnings. However, sequential volumes may remain higher despite exports remaining under pressure.
A CNBC-TV18 poll expects the company's operating profit and margin to halve compared to last year, while net profit may decline close to 80 percent.
The company had recently released its December quarter update, where Indian operations had grown 20 percent to 6.06 million tonnes, while total combined volumes increased 17 percent to 6.24 million tonnes. On a sequential basis, the metrics increased 9 percent and 17 percent respectively.
Average capacity utilisation for the quarter has been at 91 percent, compared to 84 percent during the September quarter. Steel prices will also be sharply lower from last year and 2-3 percent lower sequentially due to price cuts and contract resets.
EBITDA margin though, may improve on a sequential basis led by higher volumes despite exports from India being under pressure, a cool off in coking coal prices which will lower costs and the breaking even of Bhushan Power and JSW Coated.
| JSW Steel's Standalone EBITDA Per Tonne (Excluding Bhushan) | |
| Quarter | EBITDA/Tonne (Rs.) |
| Q3 FY22 | 17,000 |
| Q4 FY22 | 13,517 |
| Q1 FY23 | 8,300 |
| Q2 FY23 | 3,477 |
| Q3 FY23 (Est.) | 7,900 |
However, the company's overseas subsidiaries are likely to remain loss making, even as costs continue to go higher.
Among other key factors that will need to be tracked is the management commentary on expansion timelines. In August last year, the company had outlined a capex of Rs 48,700 crore for the next three years, including Rs 20,000 crore for the current financial year. However, it revised the current quarter capex guidance down to Rs 15,000 crore in November owing to a weakening global commodity cycle.
The street would also been keen to know what the management has to say on ramping up production of captive iron ore mines.
According to ICICI Securities, JSW Steel will deliver the biggest jump in EBITDA per tonne on a sequential basis this quarter.
Amit Dixit of ICICI Securities said that there is still headroom for domestic players to increase prices. Dixit also said that here is too much optimism around China and one will have to wait for Chinese policies post their new year.
(Edited by : Hormaz Fatakia)