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US JOLTS report shows lower job openings
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US factory orders drop
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US yield curve steepens as bond market stabilizes
(Recasts, adds analyst comment, bullets, byline, updates
prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasury
yields rose on Tuesday after the Trump administration granted
30-day tariff reprieves to Canada and Mexico, unwinding some of
the previous session's safe-haven bid that had pushed rates
lower,
However, data showing U.S. job openings dropped sharply in
December saw longer-dated yields pare some of their earlier
gains, led by the 10-year note. The benchmark 10-year yield was
last up 1.2 basis points (bps) at 4.555%, after
dropping on Monday to its lowest since mid-December.
Data showed that job openings, a measure of labor demand,
slid to 7.6 million on the last day of December, based on the
Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey, or JOLTS report.
The market's focus, however, has been less on the data and
more on tariffs.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suspended his threat
of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the last minute, agreeing
to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime
enforcement.
China, on the other hand, imposed targeted tariffs on
American imports on Tuesday and put several companies, including
Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in what market
participants described as a measured response to an additional
10% U.S. tariff on Chinese exports.
"What we're seeing today is a bit of a relief not only due
to delays on tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but a more measured
opening salvo between the U.S. and China," said Chip Hughey,
managing director of fixed income, at Truist Advisory Services
in Richmond, Virginia.
China's new tariffs will not take effect until Feb. 10,
giving Washington and Beijing time to try to seek a deal that
Chinese policymakers have indicated they hope to reach with
Trump.
In late morning trading, U.S. two-year yields, which are
tied to the Federal Reserve's policy moves, fell 3.5 bps to
4.230%.
Also helping push the two-year yield down was a report
showing that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped 0.9%
in December after a revised 0.8% decline in November. Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would fall 0.7%
after a previously reported 0.4% drop in November
The rise in the 10-year yield and the fall in the two-year
slightly steepened the yield curve to 31.9 bps,
from 30.2 bps late on Monday. The curve hit its narrowest since
late December on Monday after the initial tariff announcements.
Investors have been selling the long end of the curve,
demanding higher compensation, the so-called "term premium", in
exchange for dealing with policy uncertainty over a longer time
horizon.
The current term premium for U.S. 10-year notes stood at 72
bps, according to estimates from the St. Louis Fed, compared
with about 45 bps in early December.
"You expect yields to fall further, but that lack of clarity
on policy is really giving intermediate and long-term investors
more pause," said Truist's Hughey.
U.S. 30-year yields also edged higher to 4.790%, up 1.9 bps
.
U.S. rate futures, meanwhile, have priced in about 44 bps of
easing this year, up from 41 bps late on Monday, according to
LSEG calculations, with the first rate cut likely happening at
the Fed's June policy meeting.