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TREASURIES -US long-dated yields rise on market relief amid tariff delay
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TREASURIES -US long-dated yields rise on market relief amid tariff delay
Feb 4, 2025 9:19 AM

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US JOLTS report shows lower job openings

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US factory orders drop

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US yield curve steepens as bond market stabilizes

(Recasts, adds analyst comment, bullets, byline, updates

prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasury

yields rose on Tuesday after the Trump administration granted

30-day tariff reprieves to Canada and Mexico, unwinding some of

the previous session's safe-haven bid that had pushed rates

lower,

However, data showing U.S. job openings dropped sharply in

December saw longer-dated yields pare some of their earlier

gains, led by the 10-year note. The benchmark 10-year yield was

last up 1.2 basis points (bps) at 4.555%, after

dropping on Monday to its lowest since mid-December.

Data showed that job openings, a measure of labor demand,

slid to 7.6 million on the last day of December, based on the

Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover

Survey, or JOLTS report.

The market's focus, however, has been less on the data and

more on tariffs.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suspended his threat

of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the last minute, agreeing

to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime

enforcement.

China, on the other hand, imposed targeted tariffs on

American imports on Tuesday and put several companies, including

Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in what market

participants described as a measured response to an additional

10% U.S. tariff on Chinese exports.

"What we're seeing today is a bit of a relief not only due

to delays on tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but a more measured

opening salvo between the U.S. and China," said Chip Hughey,

managing director of fixed income, at Truist Advisory Services

in Richmond, Virginia.

China's new tariffs will not take effect until Feb. 10,

giving Washington and Beijing time to try to seek a deal that

Chinese policymakers have indicated they hope to reach with

Trump.

In late morning trading, U.S. two-year yields, which are

tied to the Federal Reserve's policy moves, fell 3.5 bps to

4.230%.

Also helping push the two-year yield down was a report

showing that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped 0.9%

in December after a revised 0.8% decline in November. Economists

polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would fall 0.7%

after a previously reported 0.4% drop in November

The rise in the 10-year yield and the fall in the two-year

slightly steepened the yield curve to 31.9 bps,

from 30.2 bps late on Monday. The curve hit its narrowest since

late December on Monday after the initial tariff announcements.

Investors have been selling the long end of the curve,

demanding higher compensation, the so-called "term premium", in

exchange for dealing with policy uncertainty over a longer time

horizon.

The current term premium for U.S. 10-year notes stood at 72

bps, according to estimates from the St. Louis Fed, compared

with about 45 bps in early December.

"You expect yields to fall further, but that lack of clarity

on policy is really giving intermediate and long-term investors

more pause," said Truist's Hughey.

U.S. 30-year yields also edged higher to 4.790%, up 1.9 bps

.

U.S. rate futures, meanwhile, have priced in about 44 bps of

easing this year, up from 41 bps late on Monday, according to

LSEG calculations, with the first rate cut likely happening at

the Fed's June policy meeting.

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