* Heavy Treasury supply prompts investor selling, tests
demand
* Investors also worried about US-Iran stalemate
* J.P. Morgan expects Fed to hold rates through H1 2027
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on
Monday as investors sold them ahead of a wave of issuance on the
front end of the curve that is expected to once again test
demand for the country's government debt.
Investors are also watching closely a diplomatic stalemate,
as negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict show
little sign of progress.
Iranian sources disclosed Tehran's latest proposal on
Monday, which would defer talks of Iran's nuclear program until
hostilities cease and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are
resolved. That is unlikely to satisfy Washington, which says
nuclear issues must be addressed from the outset.
Those geopolitical uncertainties are unfolding alongside
heavy near-term Treasury supply. Ahead of bill and note
auctions, investors often sell Treasuries to push yields higher
before buying them back at lower prices once new supply is
absorbed - a process known in the market as building a
concession.
FED MEETING
Heavy issuance, however, can expose weak demand, analysts
said, leading to weaker-than-expected auctions and further price
declines. Investors holding Treasuries into auctions face
mark-to-market volatility, especially on the front end.
On tap on Monday are $166 billion in U.S. 13-week and
26-week bill auctions and the sale of $139 billion in two-year
and five-year notes.
"We have a lot of supply on the front end and the market is
trying to digest that," said Tom di Galoma, managing director
for global rates trading at Mischler Financial. "It's too much
supply given that it's a Monday and people are probably not set
up for it."
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury
yield rose 1.2 basis points to 4.322%. Last Friday,
the yield posted its biggest weekly increase since mid-March.
U.S. 30-year yields were up 1.3 bps at 4.929%.
At the shorter end of the curve, U.S. two-year yields, which
reflect interest rate expectations, climbed 19 bps to 3.795%
. They also had the largest weekly increase since
March 16.
After the auctions, the focus will be on the Federal Open
Market Committee meeting, which ends on Wednesday. This would be
Jerome Powell's last scheduled meeting as chair.
J.P. Morgan said in a research note it expected the Fed to
remain on hold through the first half of 2027, noting that money
markets are pricing in a Fed pause as well until deep into next
year. The U.S. bank said it sees some risk of Fed tightening in
the second half of 2027.