March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields climbed on
Thursday following hotter-than-expected February inflation data,
raising uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve would cut
rates later than June, as widely expected.
The producer price index rose 0.6% in February, exceeding
forecasts of 0.3% and the previous month's increase. This
follows Tuesday's surprisingly solid increase in the consumer
price index for February.
Still, the data only slightly dented speculation in the
futures markets that the Fed would ease in June for the first
time since it began hiking the Fed funds rate from near-zero in
March 2022.
No Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week ahead
of the central bank's March 19-20 meeting, where it is expected
to hold rates in the 5.25%-5.5% range until mid-June, with at
least two more rate cuts likely by year-end. They are looking
for data that gives them more confidence inflation is on a path
to their 2% goal.
The benchmark 10-year note yield was last up 7.1
basis points (bps) at 4.265%, rising for the fourth consecutive
day. Two-year yields were up 5.3 bps on the day at
4.677%.
Traders in Fed funds futures reduced bets that the Fed will
cut rates by June to 62.5%, from 66.7% on Wednesday, according
to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
"This data really pushes back on the market pricing,"
said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe
Generale.
"If you look at the market pricing of cuts, June really
feels like a coin toss as opposed to a shoo-in now like it was
over the last couple of weeks."
In addition to February's PPI data, initial jobless claims
for the week ending March 9 also came in stronger than expected.
There were 209,000 claims on the week, lower than the 218,000
expected.
Retail sales disappointed in February, meanwhile, ticking up
0.6% month over month versus an expected 0.8% increase.
"The one observation that we'll add is the pace of retail
sales during Q1 hints of the specter of stagflation - although
it's only a couple prints and insufficient to draw any
broad-based conclusion," said Ian Lyngen, managing director and
head of U.S. rates strategy for BMO Capital Markets, in a note.
"The kneejerk response to the data was bond-bearish but the
price action has faded and the theme of unchanged and quiet
trading has reemerged."
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year notes narrowed to minus 40.7 bps from
minus 43.4 bps on Wednesday.
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday is slated to auction $95
billion in four-week bills and $90 billion in eight-week bills.
The auctions follow a $22 billion auction of 30-year bonds
on Wednesday, which drew a high yield of 4.331% and
a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.47. This was slightly higher than the
February average of 2.40 and the 2.39 average for the last 10
auctions of 30-year bonds.
The 30-year bond yield was last up eight bps to 4.426% from
4.346% on Wednesday.