*
ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in Aug, still
indicating
contraction
*
Fed expected to cut rates by at least 25 bps at September
meeting
*
Two-year Treasury yield fell 6.2 bps, biggest drop since
August
23
(Updated at 2:33 p.m. ET/1833 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note set to break a
five-session streak of gains, after data signaled activity in
the manufacturing sector remains soft.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its
manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in August from an eight-month low
of 46.8 in July, and remained below the 50 reading to indicate
contraction for the fifth straight month.
"The bounce in manufacturing from July's abysmal reading
wasn't all that great. New orders dropped, which doesn't augur
well for a future rebound in activity," said Brian Jacobsen,
chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls,
Wisconsin.
"The Fed cares about the labor market, not the manufacturing
sector. It will take service sector weakness to scare the Fed
into doing more than a 25 basis point cut and that just doesn't
seem to be in the cards for now."
Investors will get a host of data on the labor market this
week, culminating in Friday's key government payrolls report.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 5.7 basis points (bps) to 3.854%. The yield
snapped a two-week streak of declines last week as economic data
boosted expectations the Fed was more likely to opt for a
smaller cut of 25 basis points at its Sept. 18 policy
announcement.
Markets have fully priced in a rate cut of at least 25 bps
at the upcoming meeting, with expectations for a cut of 50 bps
climbing to 37% after the data, up from 30% in the prior
session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 5.3 basis
points to 4.143%.
Recent comments from Fed policymakers signal the majority
are ready to support a rate cut by the central bank at its
September meeting.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 3.8 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 3.7 basis
points to 3.865%, on track for its biggest daily drop since Aug.
23.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
1.984% after closing at 2.034% on August 30.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.112%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.1% a year for the next decade.