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TREASURIES-Yields rise after strong Q2 economic data, markets await Q3 data
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TREASURIES-Yields rise after strong Q2 economic data, markets await Q3 data
Sep 25, 2025 8:12 AM

Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on

Thursday following stronger-than-expected second-quarter

economic data that could strengthen the case for a rates pause

from the Federal Reserve at its next October meeting.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield

was last up 4.6 basis points (bps) at 4.193%. It hit its highest

level since September 5 on Monday.

The 30-year bond yield was last up 1.7 bps at

4.772%.

The uptick in yields follows a series of economic data reports

Thursday morning that surprised to the upside. These included

initial jobless claims last week that were lower than analysts'

forecasts.

Further data showed that existing home sales declined in August

amid affordability issues and high mortgage rates.

GDP data showed the economy grew in the second quarter, driven

by an ebb in imports and strong consumer spending.

"It seems like we're reacting more to the GDP upside

surprise," said Molly Brooks, U.S. rates strategist at TD

Securities, about the uptick in two- and 10-year Treasury

yields.

"(But) I think markets are still biased towards seeing a

slowdown in data going forward," she cautioned.

Market participants are looking to further data, especially

for the third quarter, showing the direction of inflation and

the job market for signs of the Fed's rates decision at its

October meeting.

Markets are pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 bps cut in

October following Powell's Tuesday speech, and 17% odds of a

pause. U.S. rate futures have also priced in 44 bps worth of

cuts through the end of the year, according to LSEG data.

The two-year yield, which typically reflects

interest rate expectations, was last up 5.7 bps from Wednesday's

close at 3.655%. It hit a three-week high of 3.6% on Monday.

The Treasury Department will auction $44 billion in

seven-year notes on Thursday afternoon. The auction

will follow two- and five-year auctions earlier in the week that

saw around average demand from primary dealers.

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