12:15 PM EDT, 06/20/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 25 points, with most sectors modestly higher, after opening up 130 points.

Healthcare, up 0.35%, is the biggest gainer, while miners, down 1%, is the biggest decliner.

Oil prices fell early on Friday with traders lowering the commodity's risk premium as Iran and Israel continue to trade attacks and concerns ease that the United States will enter the fighting. Gold traded lower as traders returned to work following the Juneteenth holiday to weigh the Federal Reserve's Wednesday decision to leave interest rates unchanged amid concerns tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will raise inflation.

On the home front, the focus was on the release of retail sales for April, and an advanced reading for May.

TD noted retail sales edged up 0.3% in April month-on-month, slightly below the Statistics Canada's advance estimate. After adjusting for inflation, the volume of retail sales increased 0.5% m/m. For the second straight month, strength in motor vehicles and parts sales (+1.9% m/m) was the primary driver of headline growth. Ex-autos, sales were down 0.3% m/m. It also noted Statistics Canada's advanced estimate points to a 1.1% m/m contraction in May.

As expected, TD Economics said in looking at the key implications of today's release of Canada retail sales data for April, consumers continued to front-load vehicle purchases in anticipation of price increases that are likely to come due to tariffs. However, the bank added, core sales may be an early signal of broader consumer hesitancy in the face of trade policy headwinds.

TD said the advance estimate for May "sets a somber tone" for the second quarter. Its internal credit and debit card spending data also showed a "meaningful softening" in spending through May, suggesting that consumers tightened their purse strings. TD expects real personal consumption expenditures to be flat this quarter, with consumer spending likely to contract in the third quarter if U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on sentiment and job prospects.

On the May figure, Desjardins said while it didn't know how much of the decline is attributed to goods prices, it is likely that volumes pulled back after recent strength. Following the numbers today, the Desjardins' GDP tracking for the second quarter suggests economic growth is likely to stagnate. Canadian central bankers will also be looking closely at incoming inflation data and developments related to US-Canada trade relations ahead of their July meeting.

For its part, CIBC said the "sluggish" trend in ex-auto sales volumes, combined with the advance estimate for a decline in headline sales in May, is evidence that consumer spending is starting to struggle in the face of tariff uncertainty and renewed weakness within the labour market. CIBC continues to expect the Bank of Canada will need to return to interest rate cuts to help support a recovery, and forecast two 25bp reductions during the second half of the year.