* Investors expect Iran conflict and energy shock to
ease, supporting bond prices
* ECB officials, including President Lagarde, downplay
likelihood of multiple rate hikes
* Italian two-year yields rise more than peers due to
fragile finances and energy costs
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - Short-dated euro zone
government bond yields edged up on Friday, but were still set
for a third straight week of declines, as investors grew
increasingly optimistic that the Iran war and subsequent energy
shock may soon be over.
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that a deal
could soon be reached to end the conflict. He said the next
meeting between the United States and Iran could take place at
the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was
possible.
Denting bond prices on Friday, which drove up yields, has
been the strength in oil prices this week, which are on track
for a 3% gain. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
now under a U.S. blockade, has wiped out much of the available
crude in physical markets outside the Gulf.
Two-year German Schatz yields, which are more
sensitive to expectations for near-term rate decisions and
inflation than benchmark 10-year debt, were up 1.4 basis points
in early trading at 2.547%.
They are heading for a weekly decline of 6 bps but that
would still be around 50 bps higher than they were before the
war.
Money markets show traders now only see a 15% chance of the
European Central Bank raising interest rates at its April
meeting, down from closer to 80% at one point in
recent weeks, although the prospect of two rate hikes in 2026
remains comfortably priced in.
ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, were
out in force this week, talking down the possibility of a string
of rate hikes, which helped temper some of those market-based
expectations.
"With the June meeting still seven weeks away, a lot can
happen. However, without a renewed crisis escalation that pushes
oil prices sustainably above $100, we see better chances that
the ECB will hike by less than forwards predict," Commerzbank
rate strategist Christoph Rieger said.
German 10-year yields, which serve as the
benchmark for the broader euro zone, were up 1.5 bps at 3.048%.
They remained unchanged on the week and 40 bps above where they
were in late February when the war started.
Elsewhere, Italian two-year yields headed for a
third weekly decline, but were up 3 bps on the day at 3.835%.
Two-year BTP yields have risen more than most other
developed market bonds since the start of the war, surging 65
bps given Italy's already fragile government finances and a
hefty energy import bill.
Ten-year BTP yields climbed 1.1 bps to 3.819% ,
bringing their premium over Bunds to 77 bps. This
spread, which many investors view as a barometer of global risk
appetite, reached a nine-month high above 100 bps in late
March.