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US Equity Indexes Up, Fed Rate-Cut Bets Rangebound After February's Inflation Report
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US Equity Indexes Up, Fed Rate-Cut Bets Rangebound After February's Inflation Report
Mar 12, 2024 10:53 AM

01:38 PM EDT, 03/12/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US benchmark stock indexes rose after midday on Tuesday as February's inflation data failed to meaningfully lift bets in favor of interest-rate cuts.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 5,147.1, with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.8% to 16,153.2 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.2% higher at 38,850.4. Technology and consumer discretionary led the gainers intraday, while utilities and real estate were the biggest decliners.

The US consumer price index rose by 0.4% in February, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a 0.3% increase in January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.4%, the same as in the previous month and above the consensus estimate for a 0.3% increase.

The year-over-year rate for overall CPI increased to 3.2% from 3.1% in January, while core CPI slowed to 3.8% from 3.9% in the previous month. The forecast was 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively.

"These are pretty small misses in the grand scheme," Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, said. As per the Jefferies note, about 60% of the increase this month came from gasoline and shelter costs. Core and the so-called super-core measures of service prices slowed from last month, but remained firm.

Following the release of the inflation data, the probability of the Fed's easing cycle beginning in June stood at 57% versus 60% a day ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. This implies market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut of 25 basis points have not changed dramatically.

"For the Federal Reserve, the data do not change the outlook for policy," Simons said. "They have acknowledged the issues with measuring shelter costs in this series, and they typically look through swings in energy prices, so the data won't motivate a change in their thinking on rate cuts."

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.17%, and the two-year climbed 6.1 basis points to 4.6%.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.3% to $78.18 per barrel intraday.

In company news, Oracle (ORCL) shares surged 12% intraday, the top performer on the S&P 500, after the technology giant reported higher fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings and revenue.

Southwest Airlines ( LUV ) sank 14% intraday, the steepest decliner on the S&P 500, after the company said that it revised its Q1 guidance after Boeing (BA) advised the budget carrier that it would be delivering fewer aircraft in 2024.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex fell 0.9% to $2,169.6 per troy ounce. Silver dropped 1.2% to $24.4 per troy ounce.

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