05:45 AM EDT, 06/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will focus on escalating deadly conflict between Israel and Iran while keeping an eye on the path ahead for interest rates in the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting during this holiday-shortened week.

* The Israel-Iran conflict entered 4th day, with both sides firing waves of missiles overnight, CNN reported. Iran's early Monday strikes have hit an Israeli oil refinery and damaged part of the power grid, the news report said.

* "While previous geopolitical events have typically caused only temporary market volatility, we advocate some caution [this time] given the strong rally in equities amid unprecedented policy uncertainty -- suggesting a potential for de-risking and profit-taking."

* The Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday. A Fed policy statement will accompany the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday.

* Scotiabank said "no one" expects the policy rate to be adjusted this month. The focus will instead be on projections, including the views on potential policy rate adjustments in the future, and the media briefing. "On the dot plot, the Committee's median projection for rate cuts may be trimmed," as it's unclear that the Committee will have the confidence to cut twice in the remaining three meetings after July.

* The job market remains resilient, with the most recent non-farm payrolls "continued to avoid the fear factor of an immediate weakening of payrolls," the Scotiabank note said. Core inflation has been softening on a trend basis, but the committee members could be "nervous toward data quality."

* Economic data due this week includes the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, retail sales, building and housing permits, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

* Quarterly earnings due this week include Lennar Corp. ( LEN ) , Jabil ( JBL ) , Accenture ( ACN ) , and Kroger Co. ( KR ) .

* The US equity market will be closed on June 19 to observe Juneteenth.