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What analysts are saying about Trump-Kim summit
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What analysts are saying about Trump-Kim summit
Jun 11, 2018 4:12 AM

Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the proposed meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as doubts remain over the outcome of the historic summit.

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The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped early but was last up 0.3 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also gained 0.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5%, as per Reuters data.

Timeline:

How the Trump-Kim summit came together

The following are a selection of comments from experts and analysts:

'North Korea is very crafty'

Sung-Yoon Lee, the Kim Koo-Korea Foundation professor in Korean studies and assistant professor at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

"North Korea is very crafty. They will say strangely pleasing things to President Trump. The danger is that the Trump administration, including President Trump, will presume that maybe this time around, North Korea will comply," Lee told CNBC.

According to Lee, "The Trump Administration is saying all the right things," regarding its stance on not easing sanctions until North Korea takes concrete steps to dismantle its nuclear program.

Status quo

Paul Kitney, chief equity strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets

Kitney doesn't expect a full blown trade war rather "a detente could be the best possible outcome for markets".

He is watching out for any peace treaty that the two parties agree to sign on with promise of de-nuclearlisation.

"Maintaining the current status quo is the most likely outcome of Trump-Kim summit," said Kitney adding, "the one possible outcome that could be very interesting from market perspective, although we cannot put a high probability but a non-zero probability, is the denuclearisation and detente that brings about market based reform in North Korea."

War risks loom

Alison Evans, deputy head of Asia Pacific country risk at IHS Markit

"If the North Korea-US summit fails to conclude in an agreement, war risks will increase, exceeding previous levels, because of another failure of diplomacy."

"The failure of a summit could substantially discredit the option of diplomacy in the Korean Peninsula, weak as it already is, and put us directly on the pathway to military conflict."

Denuclearisation on the agenda

Analysts at Eurasia Group

Instead of producing a concrete deal, the June 12 summit will set the stage for "a lengthy, step-by-step process for negotiating and implementing pledges by both sides to work towards North Korea's denuclearization that results in Kim giving up some, but certainly not all, of his nuclear capabilities," the analysts wrote in a note.

The US president's shift to a less hard line position "is fueling concerns that he will not press hard in Singapore to extract a clear promise from Kim to achieve complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization' in a short period of time," the note read.

Limited impact

Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia Pacific at J.P. Morgan Asset

Management

"Although the 'Capella' summit in Singapore is capturing public attention, the direct impact on markets is likely to be limited," Hui told CNBC, adding that central bank meetings are likely to prove more critical this week.

First Published:Jun 11, 2018 1:12 PM IST

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