The American President Donald Trump may boast of his ability to negotiate to conclude a winning deal, but his recent moves in Iran appear closer to a gamble on a dice table in one of his former casinos, even if it were with dice he believed were perhaps loaded in his favor. And similar to the belief of his friend Russian President Vladimir Putin that the "special military operation" in Ukraine would be effectively settled within seven days, it seems that Trump also believed that his intervention in Iran would end approximately within the same time frame.

But unlike Putin, Trump had some reasons for his optimismas the perfect convergence between intelligence capabilities and American military power led to the quiet ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and also the case for Nicolas Maduro in Venezuelawhich is what Trump believed was in his favor to do the same thing in Iran. A senior source working closely with the energy security system of the European Union told "OilPrice.com" last week: "Trump did not realize the extent of the breadth and depth of the Islamic regime in Iran compared to the regimes in Venezuela and Syria."

He added: "But looking at what the scene looks like from now on, he still has a way out."

Mission objectives in Iran

This path is linked to the four objectives of the mission in Iran that Trump clearly presented at the beginning of the conflict.

According to the order he mentioned, the objectives began with making the building of a nuclear arsenal impossible for Iran, then moving to weakening and destroying the Iranian ballistic missile stockpile and production capabilities. After that came the objective of regime change, and finally ending the funding and arming of regional proxies for Iran. These objectives gained the support of all members of his cabinet.

The European source said: "Trump can say that the American and Israeli attacks weakened Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future, destroyed a large part of the ballistic missile stockpile, hindered its production capabilities significantly, changed the regime, and weakened the regional proxies of Iran to the degree that they became much less of a threat than they were."

But he added: "But there are reservations, and he knows that many will consider any announcement of the end of the mission here a hollow victory indeed, if not an actual defeat."

Results of military strikes

American intelligence reports until the time of writing the report (April 5, 2026) indicate that it is not possible to confirm except for the destruction of about a third of the Iranian missile arsenal only, while about two-thirds of the production facilities for missiles, drones, warships, and shipyards were subjected to destruction or severe damage.

As for what relates to the nuclear program, the Fordow fuel enrichment facility has been made non-operational, according to the American Ministry of War. Also, the above-ground enrichment facility at the Natanz site was completely destroyed, while the underground laboratories were subjected to very significant damage.

The same applies to the Isfahan nuclear technology center, which is a vital point for converting uranium into the gas necessary for the enrichment process.

However, about 400 to 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%which the International Atomic Energy Agency lost track of last yearremains unknown in location. The agency also admits that the full scope of current Iranian activities, especially in secret sites, remains unknown.

Separately, Trump can also say that he changed the regime, but only to the extent that he removed almost the top leadership rank in Iran, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Mohammad Pakpour, and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani. But the Islamic regime itself, with all its basic elements, still exists.

He can also say that he removed many of the key leaderships of the regional proxies for Iran and reduced their operational capabilities significantly.

Iranian pressure cards

The problem lies not only in the clear gaps in the claim that Trump's four objectives have been fully achieved, but what is more obvious is that Iran now possesses several high-value pressure cards against the United States and its allies that it has not used in this way before.

One of these cards hits at the core of Trump's strategy to re-impose American hegemony over the Middle East after removing the militant Islamic element in Iran from the equation.

A prominent legal source in Washington working closely with the US Treasury Department told "OilPrice.com" last week:

"Trump's goal was always to achieve that through expanding the scope of the Abraham Accordswhich are agreements mediated by the United States between Israel and Arab countrieson the basis that every agreement will carry with it an American guarantee for economic and military security."

He added: "But with the same regime remaining in Iran and the continued falling of missiles and drones on these countries, it becomes impossible to achieve that."

Energy prices and the elections

The other big gap between any potential victory speech for Trump and the reality on the ground is the rise in global energy prices, with the possibility of them rising more remaining in the hand of Iran.

Trump may or may not be planning some way to run for a third term, but sources confirm that he is a man who cares deeply about his legacy as president.

And entering the important midterm elections in November with the continued rise in gasoline prices will likely mean an electoral disaster for him and for the Republican Party.

The source in Washington said: "Trump cannot spend two years as a president without influence, unable to accomplish anything, while everyone remembers after years that the failure of Iran was the most prominent thing that characterized that period, exactly as happened to President Jimmy Carter."

He added: "Therefore, if he does not do anything else before he announces victory and exits, then I am sure he will try to do something about that."

Abu Musa Island: The exit option

There is a strategy that was tested in military scenariosand described by sources in Washington and the European Union as successfulthat could transfer control over energy prices from Iran to the United States, and at the same time grant Trump the political exit he wants.

And this plan centers around Abu Musa Island.

The area of the island is barely 4.9 square miles, and it is located 40 miles east of the Emirate of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, and 42 miles south of the Iranian port of Bandar Lengeh.

Its importance lies not in its size but in its location behind the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which about a third of global crude oil and approximately one-fifth of the liquefied natural gas in the world passes.

Until the year 1971, the island was managed by Britain before its withdrawal from the Gulf, and since then it has been claimed by the United Arab Emirates but it is under the control of Iran, which is a legal ambiguity that planners in Washington consider an opportunity and not a hindrance.

And among the most interesting things about the island is the long airstrip disproportionate to its size, and it is capable of accommodating several types of American bombers and fighters. From a military perspective, the island is an unsinkable advanced operations base waiting to be used.

The potential military scenario

According to the scenario circulating among senior American military planners, US Marine forces deployed in the region can control the island.

And as soon as it is secured, it can be quickly converted into a launch base for American air and naval operations behind the front line in the Strait of Hormuz.

And in coordination with the nearby Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb islands, the United States can establish a chain of positions to monitor or deter or neutralize Iranian threats to oil tankers.

And these threats may include:

Missile batteries

Drone launch sites

Swarms of fast boats

Naval mine planting operations

And the most important thing is that Trump may present this move not as an invasion of Iran but as a restoration of territories claimed by the Emirates, which allows him to say that American forces did not enter hostile territories.

The potential political victory

For Trump, the control over Abu Musa Island may allow him to say that the United States:

Re-imposed control over the most important energy chokepoint in the world

Ended Iran's ability to use oil prices as a weapon

Achieved a strategic victory that no previous American administration achieved

It will also grant him the political cover to announce the end of the mission and withdraw American forces before the conflict extends to the midterm election season.