This article provides an in-depth exploration of the technical outlook for gold and silver prices, offering valuable insights into price action dynamics and sentiment. For a holistic view that includes the fundamental forecast, download the comprehensive second quarter trading guide.
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Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,222. Although prices have since experienced a slight retreat, the precious metal remains near record zone at the time of writing.
While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor.
In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810.
On the other hand, if bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and manage to propel prices higher in the coming days and weeks, initial resistance awaits at the $2,222 record high. While buyers may face difficulty breaching this barrier decisively, a successful breakout could invigorate upside pressure, paving the way for a move towards channel resistance at $2,255.
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Silver also climbed during the first quarter, although its gains paled in comparison to gold's impressive surge. In any case, XAG/USD has arrived at the gates of an important resistance near the psychological $26.00 threshold following the recent rally, an area where bullish advances were repeatedly halted in 2023, as seen in the weekly chart below.
Drawing from historical patterns, there's a high likelihood that XAG/USD may encounter rejection once more at this technical ceiling, where seller activity seems concentrated. However, should a breakout unfold, there's scope for a move towards $26.95, which represents the high point of 2022. Subsequent strength would direct attention to $28.75, the peak of May 2021.
Alternatively, if the bearish scenario plays out and silver gets knocked back down from its current position, cluster support spans from $23.30 to $23.05. Here, the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward movement witnessed from 2020 to 2021. Below this floor, long-term trendline support at $22.00 emerges as the key focus, with $20.85 as the next target.
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Silver Bearish Data provided by of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -1% | -3% | -1% |
| Weekly | 7% | 3% | 6% |
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