Each phase of Assembly elections in West Bengal so far has been unique for its distinctive constituents - the set of voters - and the seventh phase is no different as 34 seats go to the polls on April 26. And this round, spread over five districts, is significant not only for its Muslim majority seats in Murshidabad and Malda districts but also for the high-profile constituencies in Kolkata Dakshin and Paschim Bardhaman districts, where the TMC ministers are in the fray.

West Bengal is the second state after Assam (34.22 percent) - according to the 2011 census - with the highest Muslim population (27.01 percent) in India, which is believed to have reached 30 percent in the last ten years. Interestingly, while the BJP has been accusing the TMC government of working for only thirty percent of the state population, most of the Muslims are concentrated in three districts - Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur - two of these will be voting in the coming two phases.

What is even more interesting is that these two Muslim majority districts are the strongholds of the Congress, not the ruling TMC. In the 2016 Assembly elections, out of the total 22 assembly constituencies in the Murshidabad district, the TMC managed to win only 4 seats, whereas the Congress-left alliance bagged 18 seats. In the Maldah region, the Congress-alliance swept 10 out of the 12 assembly seats, while the TMC failed to open an account. The BJP secured victory in the Baisnabnagar seat.

The 2019 parliamentary elections, however, threw up better results for the TMC. Murshidabad and Malda districts together constitute five Lok Sabha seats, the TMC bagged two (Jangipur and Murshidabad) of these seats. The Congress still managed to win Maldaha Daskhin and Baharampur seats while the Maldaha Uttar seat went to the BJP.

The mandate betrayed that it was essentially a three-corner fight in this Muslim majority region in 2019. The only pocket where Congress put up a good fight and clinched victory. The BJP sprang a surprise and won 18 seats - 16 more than the last time. The TMC lost 12 seats as compared to the 2014 LS elections in West Bengal.

Again, the battle appears triangular between the Congress-left alliance, the ruling TMC and the buoyant BJP in the Murshidabad and Malda districts. With Furfura Sharif cleric Abbas Siddique’s Indian Secular Front (ISF) joining the Sanjukta Morcha, poll analysts expect the Muslim votes to consolidate. Though the newly minted party has not put up its candidates in the area, focussing more on the southern part of the state where it is more popular.

As things stand, according to the 2011 census, Murshidabad has a 66.27 percent Muslim population, whereas Malda has 51.2 percent Muslims. To counter the unification of Muslim votes in these districts, the BJP devised a strategy attacking both the TMC and the Congress, accusing them of indulging in appeasement politics. The saffron party hoped that the move would unite the Hindu votes raising the prospect of its victory in a three-way competition. But Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee campaigned in these regions with all her might explicitly seeking the support of Muslims and urged the community to avoid any split of votes.

In the seventh phase, nine Assembly seats in Murshidabad and six in Malda are up for grabs. Elections in Samserganj and Jangipur have been re-scheduled for May 16 after the death of two candidates in these constituencies. Besides, voters in nine assembly seats in Paschim Bardhaman, six in Dakshin Dinajpur and four constituencies in Kolkata Dakshin will exercise their franchise on Monday.

In these three Hindu Majority districts, the distinction of Bengali-speaking and Urdu-speaking Muslims could play a critical role. The Bengali-speaking Muslims, constituting around 77% of the total Muslim population in West Bengal, are scattered in rural areas, while Urdu-speaking Muslims, migrating from the other states, are inhabited in urban areas. Cleric Abbas Siddique arguably has substantial influence over Bengali-speaking Muslims in Kolkata Dakshin and Paschim Bardhaman areas who could dent the TMC votes. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee has been banking on the doles of her government to woo rural and urban Muslims, which includes stipends to imams who control the Urdu-speaking Muslims.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the Bhabanipur seat in South Kolkata that Mamata Banerjee left to fight from Nandigram. The TMC chief registered a massive victory from Bhabanipur in the 2011 by-election with a margin of around 54000 votes. In the 2016 assembly elections, she repeated her triumph, but the margin of victory came down to just over 25000. In the 2019 LS polls, the vote share of the BJP was only marginally lower than the TMC in the assembly segment. While Mamata Banerjee has fielded her power minister Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay from Bhabanipur, the sizeable non-Bengali voters in the area may turn the tide on him.

Om Tiwari is a Delhi-based journalist and columnist. The views expressed are personal

Click to read his other columns

(Edited by : Aditi Gautam)