By Saturday Karnataka will have a new government under the leadership of Siddaramaiah with the formidable State Congress Chief DK Shivakumar as his official number two. The swearing-in on Saturday (May 20), will conclude the formal transition of power, exactly a week after the people spoke loud and clear in the assembly elections.

In the interim, the country witnessed intense struggle between the two leaders to be at the helm of affairs in the state with the latter holding on to the demand of having the right of way to the top political post in the state.

Also Read: Siddaramaiah to take oath as Chief Minister for a second term on May 20

In the end, like all old battles in the Congress the matter was settled with “DKShi’, as Shivakumar is known in political circles preferring to abide by the ‘party decision’ and likening it to as a court verdict. Quite like the tradition in the Grand Old Party, at the legislature party meet, Shivakumar moved the resolution proposing Siddaramaiah be elected as the leader.

Between May 13 and now the media, including those operating in ubiquitous cyberspace, were full of various theories with even those vanquished at the recent hustings taking pot shots at the jostling for power. For the time being, the dust is settling in, amid a lingering doubt whether the waters will continue to stay calm.

Also Read: Karnataka CM Swearing In Tomorrow Live Updates | Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar meet Rahul, Priyanka Gandhi

The approach that the party central leadership adopted to make the two regional chiefs smoke the peace pipe led to comparisons to similar arrangements the Congress struck five years ago in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

After the Congress wrested power in these states, there were strong competing claims for the top job in each. In MP it was Kamal Nath versus Jyotiraditya Scindia, Ashok Gehlot versus Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel versus TS Singh Deo in Chhattisgarh. The tussle for Chief Ministership was more intense in MP and Rajasthan with challengers having a higher profile.

The Congress' Dilemma

Now as these states head for another round of assembly polls later this year, Kamal Nath could not survive the political game and faced ejection mid-way while in Rajasthan, energetic Pilot is still at it with the seasoned Gehlot running circles around him. In Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Baghel first thwarted and later outsmarted attempts to dislodge him.

Now the question that is in the top-drawer of political observers is how long will the Karnataka peace last? Will it lead to another Gehlot-Pilot tussle? Or is there an arrangement to accommodate competing interests?

The two situations, the ongoing feud in Rajasthan and a likelihood of similar contours developing in Karnataka are vastly different. In Rajasthan, despite having purported support of the party leadership, read the Gandhis in particular, Sachin Pilot remains an outlier in the power structure. The closest, the US-educated Pilot was when the party made serious efforts to shift Gehlot as the AICC president but ‘Jadugar’ (magician) Gehlot had far too many tricks in his hat and there-in lies the tale.

The current state of politics in the Congress party, both at the Centre and State cannot be compared. Today, the All India Congress Committee is headed by Mallikarjun Kharge, a seasoned politician with deep roots in Karnataka. Prior to the current development, the new AICC Chief worked to bring about a settlement in Himachal Pradesh where the reins of the Chief Ministership was handed over to former state party chief Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, with the then Leader of the Opposition, Mukesh Agnihotri considered to be a front runner with sizable support.

Between the CM and Deputy CM

In addition, besides the firm backing of the Gandhis, Kharge is personally aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both the Chief Minister-elect and the Deputy Chief Minister-elect. This played a role in sorting out the seemingly intractable post-result position in Karnataka and should work in the year ahead. The focus will be to reap rich electoral harvest in the next Lok Sabha elections.

Then there is a Damocles Sword hanging over Karnataka Congress Chief, which neither the Central nor the State leadership could choose to ignore. The prospective Deputy Chief Minister is under the scanner of central law enforcement agencies. Once the legal process moves, having him at the helm as the Chief Minister can lead to a deep embarrassment for the party that campaigned on the “40 percent Commission Sarkara” against the BJP government of Basavraj Bommai.

The task before Congress and its leadership was limited. It was to install a government in the state, send a message of unity and work towards the next goal of securing a majority of the 28 Lok Sabha seats the state offers.

Mission Lok Sabha Poll

For the Congress, the next Lok Sabha battle is going to be intense and requires an ‘all hand on the deck’ approach, especially when the principal opponent follows the norm of no concessions in any form or fashion.

Change is constant and politics is determined by situations and events. As the adage goes” If a week is a long time in politics”, in Karnataka the horizon is at least a year away.

—The author, KV Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here

(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)

First Published:May 19, 2023 8:34 PM IST