WUHAN, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Liu Yi is among China's 7
million ride-hailing drivers. A 36-year-old Wuhan resident, he
started driving part-time this year when construction work
slowed in the face of a nationwide glut of unsold apartments.
Now he predicts another crisis as he stands next to his car
watching neighbours order driverless taxis.
"Everyone will go hungry," he said of Wuhan drivers
competing against robotaxis from Apollo Go, a subsidiary of
technology giant Baidu ( BIDU ).
Baidu ( BIDU ) and the Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology declined comment.
Ride-hailing and taxi drivers are among the first workers
globally to face the threat of job loss from artificial
intelligence as thousands of robotaxis hit Chinese streets,
economists and industry experts said.
Self-driving technology remains experimental but China has
moved aggressively to green-light trials compared with the U.S
which is quick to launch investigations and suspend approvals
after accidents.
At least 19 Chinese cities are running robotaxi and robobus
tests, disclosure showed. Seven have approved tests without
human-driver monitors by at least five industry leaders: Apollo
Go, Pony.ai, WeRide, AutoX and SAIC Motor.
Apollo Go has said it plans to deploy 1,000 in Wuhan by
year-end and operate in 100 cities by 2030.
Pony.ai, backed by Japan's Toyota Motor ( TM ), operates
300 robotaxis and plans 1,000 more by 2026. Its vice president
has said robotaxis could take five years to become sustainably
profitable, at which point they will expand "exponentially".
WeRide is known for autonomous taxis, vans, buses and street
sweepers. AutoX, backed by e-commerce leader Alibaba Group ( BABA )
, operates in cities including Beijing and Shanghai.
SAIC has been operating robotaxis since the end of 2021.
"We've seen an acceleration in China. There's certainly now
a rapid pace of permits being issued," said Boston Consulting
Group managing director Augustin Wegscheider. "The U.S. has been
a lot more gradual."
Alphabet's Waymo is the only U.S. firm operating
uncrewed robotaxis that collect fares. It has over 1,000 cars in
San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix but could grow to
"thousands", said a person with knowledge of its operations.
Cruise, backed by General Motors ( GM ), restarted testing
in April after one of its vehicles hit a pedestrian last year.
Cruise said it operates in three cities with safety its core
mission. Waymo did not respond to a request for comment.
"There's a clear contrast between U.S. and China" with
robotaxi developers facing far more scrutiny and higher hurdles
in the U.S., said former Waymo CEO John Krafcik.
Robotaxis spark safety concerns in China, too, but fleets
proliferate as authorities approve testing to support economic
goals. Last year, President Xi Jinping called for "new
productive forces", setting off regional competition.
Beijing announced testing in limited areas in June and
Guangzhou said this month it would open roads citywide to
self-driving trials.
Some Chinese firms have sought to test autonomous cars in
the U.S. but the White House is set to ban vehicles with
China-developed systems, said people briefed on the matter.
Boston Consulting's Wegscheider compared China's push to
develop autonomous vehicles to its support of electric vehicles.
"Once they commit," he said, "they move pretty fast".
'STUPID RADISHES'
China has 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers versus
4.4 million two years ago, official data showed. With
ride-hailing providing last-resort jobs during economic
slowdown, the side effects of robotaxis could prompt the
government to tap the brakes, economists said.
In July, discussion of job loss from robotaxis soared to the
top of social media searches with hashtags including, "Are
driverless cars stealing taxi drivers' livelihoods?"
In Wuhan, Liu and other ride-hailing drivers call Apollo Go
vehicles "stupid radishes" - a pun on the brand's name in local
dialect - saying they cause traffic jams.
Liu worries, too, about the impending introduction of
Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" system - which still
requires human drivers - and the automaker's robotaxi ambitions.
"I'm afraid that after the radishes come," he said, "Tesla
will come."
Wuhan driver Wang Guoqiang, 63, sees a threat to workers who
can least afford disruption.
"Ride-hailing is work for the lowest class," he said, as he
watched an Apollo Go vehicle park in front of his taxi. "If you
kill off this industry, what is left for them to do?"
Baidu ( BIDU ) declined to comment on the drivers' concerns and
referred Reuters to comments in May by Chen Zhuo, Apollo Go's
general manager. Chen said the firm would become "the world's
first commercially profitable" autonomous-driving platform.
Apollo Go loses almost $11,000 a car annually in Wuhan,
Haitong International Securities estimated. A lower-cost model
could enable per-vehicle annual profit of nearly $16,000, the
securities firm said. By contrast, a ride-hailing car earns
about $15,000 total for the driver and platform.
'ALREADY AT THE FOREFRONT'
Automating jobs could benefit China in the long run given a
shrinking population, economists said.
"In the short run, there must be a balance in speed between
the creation of new jobs and the destruction of old jobs," said
Tang Yao, associate professor of applied economics at Peking
University. "We do not necessarily need to push at the fastest
speed, as we are already at the forefront."
Eastern Pioneer Driving School has more than
halved its instructor number since 2019 to about 900. Instead,
it has teachers at a Beijing control centre remotely monitoring
students in 610 cars equipped with computer instruction tools.
Computers score students on every wheel turn and brake tap,
and virtual reality simulators coach them on navigating winding
roads. Massive screens provide real-time analysis of driver
tasks, such as one student's 82% parallel-parking pass rate.
Zhang Yang, the school's intelligent-training director, said
the machines have done well.
"The efficiency, pass rate and safety awareness have greatly
improved."