May 17 (Reuters) - Markets are hoping for evidence that
will solidify a brightening global economic outlook, though
rising trade tensions are casting a cloud, while G7 finance
ministers gather in Italy.
AI darling Nvidia reports results, London has its sights on
a revival in stock listings, while New Zealand's central bank is
stuck in rut between lacklustre growth and sticky inflation.
Here's your look at what's happening in markets this coming
week from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York,
and Anousha Sakoui, Dhara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in
London.
1/ CLOUDS ON HORIZON
Upcoming May business activity numbers from big economies
should reinforce a brighter global economic outlook.
A slow euro area recovery appears to be underway after six
straight quarters of stagnant or negative growth, U.S. inflation
just resumed its downward trend and China grew faster than
expected in Q1. So, global PMIs should stay on the right side of
the 50 divider between expansion and contraction.
Yet steep U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports from
electric vehicle batteries to computer chips highlight a fragile
outlook for global trade and growth. China vows retaliation.
Manufacturers in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, are
already experiencing shifts in world trade and
geopolitics. Heightened trade tensions - with a U.S. election
looming - could hurt them further, upend China's recovery and
reignite U.S. inflation.
Global PMIs are pointing up for now. But that could easily
change.
2/ CHIP TIME
Nvidia's quarterly results on Wednesday could set the tone
for U.S. stock markets and reverberate through companies exposed
to the burgeoning artificial intelligence field.
The semiconductor company at the center of the excitement
over AI's business potential is expected to report a massive
jump in revenue and profit for its fiscal first quarter.
Revenue is expected to rise to $24.8 billion, from $7.2
billion a year earlier, with earnings per share soaring to $5.57
from $1.09, according to LSEG data.
Nvidia may need to meet those lofty expectations and then
some to keep its soaring stock price moving higher. Shares have
jumped over 90% this year after more than tripling in 2023,
making the AI darling the third-largest U.S. company by market
value.
3/ SHEIN AND SPARKLE
Reports on the diminished status of London's stock market
have been aplenty: Europe's most popular listing venue during
the 2021 boom has been home to just 1% of all European IPO
volumes year-to-date, according to Dealogic.
Could this be about to change? A string of household names
have emerged as potential London listing contenders.
Chinese fast fashion brand Shein is stepping up preparations
for a potential London float that could be the venue's largest
ever if its valued at $66 billion. Diamond firm De Beers is
another that might bring some sparkle.
A positive driver is the improved global fund flows.
4/ WATCH, WORRY AND WAIT
The central bank that was at the forefront of monetary
policy shifts globally has been forced to take a back seat in
bringing interest rates down from painful multi-year peaks.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, expected to leave rates
unchanged on Wednesday for a seventh consecutive meeting, was
the first major monetary authority to ease at the start of the
pandemic, and the first to hike in the aftermath.
But sticky inflation and a flatlining economy keeps the RBNZ
in the "watch, worry and wait" stance it adopted a year ago.
Market wagers for an eventual cut in October put it behind
the ECB which is expected to move in June, followed by the BoE
in August and the U.S. Fed in September. Switzerland and Sweden
have started easing.
The RBNZ itself is even less optimistic, projecting no
lowering of rates until next year.
5/ FROZEN ASSETS
Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven major democracies
will back a European Union plan to use the income from frozen
Russian assets to help Ukraine's war effort at a May 24-25
meeting, according to Italy, which holds the rotating presidency
of the group.
The prospect of more funding potentially in the near future
comes at a critical time for Ukraine, which faces a new Russian
offensive in the north eastern Kharkiv region.
The G7 froze some $300 billion worth of financial assets
soon after Moscow's attack on its neighbour in February 2022 -
and has debated since then whether and how to use the funds to
help Ukraine. While Washington has proposed seizing the assets
in their entirety, Europe has balked at that push, citing risks
to the euro and legal repercussions.
Italy has said it will also try to revive an international
deal on how to share taxing rights on large corporations which
the United States is struggling to ratify in Congress.
(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen,
Prinz Magtulis and Riddhima Talwani, compiled by Karin
Strohecker; Editing by Toby Chopra)