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GRAPHIC-Take Five: The good, the bad and the ugly
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GRAPHIC-Take Five: The good, the bad and the ugly
May 20, 2024 6:04 AM

May 17 (Reuters) - Markets are hoping for evidence that

will solidify a brightening global economic outlook, though

rising trade tensions are casting a cloud, while G7 finance

ministers gather in Italy.

AI darling Nvidia reports results, London has its sights on

a revival in stock listings, while New Zealand's central bank is

stuck in rut between lacklustre growth and sticky inflation.

Here's your look at what's happening in markets this coming

week from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York,

and Anousha Sakoui, Dhara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in

London.

1/ CLOUDS ON HORIZON

Upcoming May business activity numbers from big economies

should reinforce a brighter global economic outlook.

A slow euro area recovery appears to be underway after six

straight quarters of stagnant or negative growth, U.S. inflation

just resumed its downward trend and China grew faster than

expected in Q1. So, global PMIs should stay on the right side of

the 50 divider between expansion and contraction.

Yet steep U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports from

electric vehicle batteries to computer chips highlight a fragile

outlook for global trade and growth. China vows retaliation.

Manufacturers in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, are

already experiencing shifts in world trade and

geopolitics. Heightened trade tensions - with a U.S. election

looming - could hurt them further, upend China's recovery and

reignite U.S. inflation.

Global PMIs are pointing up for now. But that could easily

change.

2/ CHIP TIME

Nvidia's quarterly results on Wednesday could set the tone

for U.S. stock markets and reverberate through companies exposed

to the burgeoning artificial intelligence field.

The semiconductor company at the center of the excitement

over AI's business potential is expected to report a massive

jump in revenue and profit for its fiscal first quarter.

Revenue is expected to rise to $24.8 billion, from $7.2

billion a year earlier, with earnings per share soaring to $5.57

from $1.09, according to LSEG data.

Nvidia may need to meet those lofty expectations and then

some to keep its soaring stock price moving higher. Shares have

jumped over 90% this year after more than tripling in 2023,

making the AI darling the third-largest U.S. company by market

value.

3/ SHEIN AND SPARKLE

Reports on the diminished status of London's stock market

have been aplenty: Europe's most popular listing venue during

the 2021 boom has been home to just 1% of all European IPO

volumes year-to-date, according to Dealogic.

Could this be about to change? A string of household names

have emerged as potential London listing contenders.

Chinese fast fashion brand Shein is stepping up preparations

for a potential London float that could be the venue's largest

ever if its valued at $66 billion. Diamond firm De Beers is

another that might bring some sparkle.

A positive driver is the improved global fund flows.

4/ WATCH, WORRY AND WAIT

The central bank that was at the forefront of monetary

policy shifts globally has been forced to take a back seat in

bringing interest rates down from painful multi-year peaks.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, expected to leave rates

unchanged on Wednesday for a seventh consecutive meeting, was

the first major monetary authority to ease at the start of the

pandemic, and the first to hike in the aftermath.

But sticky inflation and a flatlining economy keeps the RBNZ

in the "watch, worry and wait" stance it adopted a year ago.

Market wagers for an eventual cut in October put it behind

the ECB which is expected to move in June, followed by the BoE

in August and the U.S. Fed in September. Switzerland and Sweden

have started easing.

The RBNZ itself is even less optimistic, projecting no

lowering of rates until next year.

5/ FROZEN ASSETS

Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven major democracies

will back a European Union plan to use the income from frozen

Russian assets to help Ukraine's war effort at a May 24-25

meeting, according to Italy, which holds the rotating presidency

of the group.

The prospect of more funding potentially in the near future

comes at a critical time for Ukraine, which faces a new Russian

offensive in the north eastern Kharkiv region.

The G7 froze some $300 billion worth of financial assets

soon after Moscow's attack on its neighbour in February 2022 -

and has debated since then whether and how to use the funds to

help Ukraine. While Washington has proposed seizing the assets

in their entirety, Europe has balked at that push, citing risks

to the euro and legal repercussions.

Italy has said it will also try to revive an international

deal on how to share taxing rights on large corporations which

the United States is struggling to ratify in Congress.

(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen,

Prinz Magtulis and Riddhima Talwani, compiled by Karin

Strohecker; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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