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CEE MARKETS-Forint edges up before likely pause in Hungarian rate cuts
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CEE MARKETS-Forint edges up before likely pause in Hungarian rate cuts
Oct 22, 2024 12:57 PM

By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Central European currencies

recouped some losses on Tuesday, putting the forint on stronger

ground before a widely expected pause in the Hungarian central

bank's policy easing.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expect Hungary's central bank

to keep its rate at 6.50%, halting cuts for now

despite inflation falling to its 3% target for the first time

since 2021.

The forint, central Europe's worst performing currency so

far in 2024, has weakened sharply in recent weeks, raising

speculation of a rebound in price growth and shifting

expectations to a pause in rate cuts.

The forint was up 0.2% on the day on Tuesday, at

400.95 versus the euro. It has lost nearly 4.5% since the start

of the year.

"The main question for today is how long the pause in the

cutting cycle is ... Despite the market already being on the

hawkish side, (the bank) will not have an easy job today and

communication will be key," ING analysts wrote in a note.

"However, we believe the central bank is aware of the

fragile situation and therefore the HUF could see some gains

today, but it is probably too early for any significant recovery

and every gain could be short-lived," they said.

The forint fell beyond the psychological 400-per-euro level

this month for the first time since March 2023.

Central Bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said last week

that the bank may pause rate cuts this month - and for longer if

warranted by external risks and the inflation outlook.

In Poland, the zloty added 0.1% on the day to

4.3135 per euro, recovering some losses from the previous

session. The Czech crown was little moved at 25.268.

Central European currencies have recently come under

pressure from uncertainties over the upcoming U.S. presidential

election, with chances of a Donald Trump victory helping the

U.S. dollar and weighing on the region's assets, analysts say.

On Tuesday, the dollar clung to a 2-1/2 month high on

expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will take a measured

approach to rate cuts.

"The crown is staying in a lightly defensive position," CSOB

bank said. "In the coming sessions, we do not expect any

significant improvement (as) nervousness before U.S. elections

will be evident in risk assets sensitive to a rise in U.S.

market rates."

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKET 1021

S CET

CURRENCIE

S

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

EURCZK Czech 0

EURHUF Hungary 00

EURPLN Polish EURRON Romania EURRSD Serbian 00

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

.PX Prague 1625.74 1627.5 -0.11% +14.97

200 %

.BUX Budapes 74307.67 73990. +0.43% +22.58

t 26 %

.WIG20 Warsaw 5

.BETI Buchare 39 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT= CZ5YT= CZ10YT Poland

PL2YT= PL5YT= PL10YT FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

*********************************************

*****************

(Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan

Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Mark Potter)

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