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EMERGING MARKETS-Fed rate outlook weighs on EM markets; Mexican peso jumps to nine-year high
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EMERGING MARKETS-Fed rate outlook weighs on EM markets; Mexican peso jumps to nine-year high
Apr 5, 2024 2:19 PM

*

Brazil's IGP-DI price index falls 0.3% in March

*

Argentina bonds rally

*

Colombia CPI due

(Updated at 4pm ET/2000 GMT)

By Ankika Biswas

April 5 (Reuters) - The Mexican peso touched its

strongest level since November 2015 on Friday, a bright spot

among Latin American markets even as most regional currencies

and stocks slipped after U.S. jobs data saw investors trim bets

on interest rate cuts in June.

Top crude exporter Mexico's peso strengthened 0.8%

against the dollar, aided by strong oil prices, to 16.4593 per

dollar.

Data showed U.S. employers hired far more workers than

expected in March while raising wages, potentially delaying

anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Comments from Fed officials this week also demonstrated

policymakers remain wary of prematurely reducing borrowing

costs. Higher U.S. rates typically reduce the relative

attractiveness of riskier but higher yielding emerging market

assets.

The dollar index was last up 0.1% after a turbulent

week, pressuring emerging market currencies.

"Higher-for-longer U.S. rates should exert downward pressure

on Latam currencies, although the risk profile varies

considerably by market," said Joaquin Kritz Lara, chief

economist at Numera Analytics.

"So far, currency depreciation has occurred in countries

further along the easing cycle (Brazil, Chile), as narrower

interest spreads reduce the incentive for 'carry' trades."

The MSCI Latam currencies index fell 0.3%,

though set for its second consecutive weekly advance. The stocks

gauge dipped 0.5%.

MSCI's index for emerging market stocks fell 0.3%

on the day, though it rose 0.2% on the week.

LSEG data showed emerging market bond funds saw about $1.42

billion in net purchases in the week through April 3, the

highest since December 2023, even as EM equity funds saw net

outflows.

The Brazilian real slipped 0.3% against the dollar.

Brazil's inflation, as measured by the IGP-DI price index,

fell 0.30% in March, compared to a 0.41% gain in February,

private think tank Getulio Vargas Foundation said.

Brazil's central bank director said the bank was a long way

off foreseeing the end-cycle interest rate. He also said there

is no need for new intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The peso was up 0.3% against the dollar. Colombia's

consumer prices inflation data is due later on Friday.

Meanwhile, top copper producer Chile's peso fell

0.7%, owing to weak copper prices.

Argentina's U.S. dollar bonds rallied, with the 2030 bond up

more than 3 cents to 54.85 on the dollar.

The spread in JPMorgan's EMBI Global Diversified Argentina

index a measure of country risk, tightened to

1,304 basis points and was on track to end the session at its

most narrow since September 2020.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1045.49 -0.31

MSCI LatAm 2529.10 -0.51

Brazil Bovespa 126950.40 -0.37

Mexico IPC 58065.40 0.32

Chile IPSA 6512.36 -1.16

Argentina MerVal 1211139.60 2.368

Colombia COLCAP 1388.27 -1.4

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 5.0665 -0.05

Mexico peso 16.4593 0.75

Chile peso 948.5 -0.70

Colombia peso 3768.34 0.33

Peru sol 3.6662 0.22

Argentina peso 862.5000 -0.06

(interbank)

Argentina peso 965 3.63

(parallel)

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