April 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
rose on Monday after plunging on Friday, with investors still on
alert for risks of a broadening conflict in the Middle East,
even if recent developments eased fears of an immediate
escalation.
Iran ended its retaliatory attack with no significant damage
to Israel, and the U.S. said it did all it could to avoid an
open warfare erupting between the two countries.
The 10-year government bond yield, the euro
area's benchmark, was up 3 basis points (bps) after dropping
11.8 bps on Friday in its biggest daily drop since Oct. 9, the
Monday after the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' attack on
Israel. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
"The week is starting on a fraught note, with unease still
clouding sentiment. Investors are on alert for retaliatory
action following Iran's attack on Israel," said Susannah
Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
"Fears are brewing that a dangerous new episode of
escalating conflict is about to roll," she added. "All eyes are
on diplomatic efforts being made to diffuse the situation."
The gap between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German rates
hit a fresh 4-1/2 year high as yields rose more in
the U.S. than in the euro area as markets expected the Federal
Reserve to be more hawkish than the European Central Bank.
It was at 216.53 after reaching 219.95 early in the session,
its highest level since mid-December 2019. It hit on Wednesday
its highest since late 2019 for the first time at 214 bps.
While Fed officials reiterated there was no urgency to cut
rates and supported expectations for two Fed moves this year,
European Central Bank rate-setters argued the central bank could
ease its monetary policy even if the Fed does not.
Lithuanian ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said there is a
greater than 50% probability of more than three rate cuts this
year and Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB is
increasingly confident that it is winning the inflation fight.
Money markets priced in 87 bps of ECB rate cuts
in 2024, assigning an around 50% chance to
a fourth rate cut this year, and was at the levels seen last
week before the U.S. stronger-than-expected inflation data.
Derivatives on U.S. rates price in 45 bps of rate cuts in
2024, discounting an 80% chance of a second rate cut
this year from around 50% last week after U.S. data.
"There is a line of thought that if Bund yields experience
upward pressure from developments in U.S. Treasuries (as has
been the case recently), financial conditions could be overly
tight in the euro zone, and the ECB will have to respond with
easier monetary," said Rabobank.
Italy's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro area's periphery, rose 1.5 bps at 3.76%.