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FOREX-Dollar in holding pattern as markets await progress on Middle East peace talks
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FOREX-Dollar in holding pattern as markets await progress on Middle East peace talks
Jun 1, 2026 5:19 AM

(Updates for early European afternoon trading)

* BOJ Governor Ueda's upcoming speech eyed for rate hike

signals

* Fed speakers, jobs data in focus this week

By Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was steady on

Monday after a small weekly loss as investors awaited

developments in Middle Eastpeace talks and U.S. jobs data later

this week that could shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy

path.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers,

edged lower last week on expectations that a deal between the

United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close.

The closure of the key oil artery has lifted oil prices and

worsened the inflation outlook, leading some to expect the Fed

would raise rates this year.

But with little fresh insight into the progress of peace

talks and a flare-up of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran

over the weekend, currency markets are in wait-and-see mode.

"We're waiting to see some progress in one direction or

another," said Tommy von Brömsen, FX strategist at

Handelsbanken.

Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen to traffic and oil prices

come down, the dollar would likely weaken in the near term and

risk-sensitive currencies, such as the Swedish crown, would

outperform, von Brömsen added.

The dollar had rallied at the onset of the conflict, buoyed

by safe-haven demand and the U.S. economy's relatively limited

exposure to energy-driven inflation. However, it has given back

some of those gains due to uncertainty surrounding the

conflict's trajectory.

The dollar index was little changed on the day at

99.05 after last week's drop of 0.4%.

The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1645, while sterling

edged up 0.1% to $1.3464.

FED WATCH

Markets are betting the Fed's next move will be to raise its key

rate, compared with expectations for a cut before the start of

the Iran war, given rising energy prices and the impact they

will have on inflation, and a still-resilient jobs market.

The U.S. labour market figures due on June 5 could help sway

what the Fed will do in the near term. The data are expected to

show a steady unemployment rate of 4.3% and an increase of

85,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Fed Governor Jerome Powell, whose term as chair formally ended

on May 15, warned in a speech on Sunday about politicisation of

monetary policy. Powell has decided to continue as a Fed

governor in part because of what he regards as ongoing threats

to the Fed's independence.

The Fed's Beth Hammack, Lorie ​Logan and Mary Daly are among

policymakers due to speak later in the week.

YEN IN FOCUS

A speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday

is also highly anticipated for signals as to whether the central

bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week.

While there is no consensus yet within the BOJ on the decision,

a pause in the central bank's taper of government bond purchases

is increasingly seen as a preferred option, said two sources

familiar with the deliberations.

The yen weakened 0.1% to 159.46 per dollar, close to

the psychologically important 160 level that saw intervention by

Japanese authorities to strengthen the currency.

"It seems like 160 is where they draw the line," said

Handelsbanken's Tommy von Brömsen.

"I think there will be intervention if we approach that

level again."

The Australian dollar traded 0.1% lower at $0.7173

against the dollar, while New Zealand's kiwi slid 0.6% to

$0.5955.

(Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift; Editing by Clarence

Fernandez, Shri Navaratnam and Chizu Nomiyama )

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