(Updates at 0222 GMT)
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was firmer on
Wednesday, surging as much as 2% against the yen after Bank of
Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank
won't raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable.
The yen was last down over 1.5% at 146.70 per
dollar having touched session lows of 147.50 immediately
following Uchida's comments, as investors were still grappling
with a massive shakeout in assets at the start of the week
driven by recession fears and unwinding of popular carry trades.
"As we are seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas
financial markets, it's necessary to maintain current levels of
monetary easing for the time being," Uchida said.
The yen touched a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar on
Monday, well above the 38-year lows of 161.96 it was languishing
in just at the start of July.
The yen's fortunes have shifted since then as bouts of
well-timed interventions from Tokyo in early July and a hawkish
shift from the Bank of Japan last week led investors to bail out
of once-popular carry trades, in which traders borrow the yen at
low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns.
But comments from Uchida could still prop up the trade,
investors say.
"Uchida has saved the carry trade - for now", said Rong Ren
Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring
Investments.
"There are also other moving parts, but yes, Japan policy is
one of the important moving parts of the overall risk structure
in the market. The other important ones would be U.S. economic
data, which in turn informs Fed policy trajectory."
This week's market volatility was exacerbated by a
softer-than-expected U.S. job report on Friday, and
disappointing earnings from major tech firms, sparking a global
sell-off in riskier assets as investors feared the U.S. economy
was heading for a recession.
"Perhaps what is being said this morning is part of an
attempt to stabilize the market, rather than to cause more
volatility," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of
Singapore, referring to comments from Uchida.
The swing in yen positioning seen over the last one month
was among the largest on record, according to strategists at JP
Morgan, with their models suggesting 65% of yen shorts have now
been covered as of Aug. 6.
"While there are still JPY shorts out there,
positioning-induced volatility in USD/JPY may begin to edge down
from here."
On Wednesday, the euro was little changed at $1.092675,
while sterling last fetched $1.26985 in Asian hours,
not far from the five-week low it hit in the previous session.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback
against six rivals, rose 0.22% to 103.19 , inching further away
from the seven month low of 102.15 it touched on Monday.
Traders have also adjusted their expectations from the
Federal Reserve this year following the soft jobs report last
week, with nearly 105 basis points of easing anticipated by
year-end.
Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of the Fed cutting
rates by 50 bps in September, CME FedWatch tool showed, compared
with 85% chance a day earlier, with major brokerages also
anticipating a large rate cut in the next meeting.
Some analysts though expect the Fed to take a measured
approach.
"My sense is that the Fed is doing what it does, it wants
some reaffirmation of the trend from several data points ...
before drawing a conclusion," said Aninda Mitra, head of Asia
macro and investment strategy at BNY Advisors Investment
Institute.
"Whereas the market looked at one NFP print ... and jumped to
the conclusion that a rate cut was needed."
In other currencies, the Australian dollar was
0.38% higher at $0.65435, a day after the central bank ruled out
the possibility of an interest rate cut this year, saying core
inflation is expected to come down only slowly.
The Aussie has struggled in recent days, sinking to eight
month lows on Monday in the wake of the global markets meltdown.
The New Zealand dollar was up 0.84% at $0.6004
following strong jobs data.