(Updates at 1459 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
June 10 (Reuters) - French and Italian borrowing costs
touched multi-month highs on Monday and the premium investors
demand to hold the countries' bonds rose after eurosceptics
gained in a European vote and France called a snap parliamentary
election.
French President Emmanuel Macron made the surprise call
after his camp lost heavily to the far-right National Rally in
European Parliament elections over the weekend.
The political shift may complicate European Union attempts
to deepen integration, increasing the risk premium investors
seek to hold bonds of the most indebted countries.
Italian and French sovereign credit default swaps also rose
to multi-week highs.
However, market participants expect the current increase in
volatility to be short-lived as centre, liberal and socialist
parties are set to retain a majority in the European parliament.
"The EU elections produced the expected shift to the right,
but the most important development may be the severe weakening
of the French and German leaders," said Citi in a research note.
"The silver lining could be an opening for Mario Draghi as
European Council President and agenda setter," it added,
referring to a former president of the European Central Bank.
The vote dealt a domestic blow to the leaders of both France
and Germany, raising questions about how the EU's major powers
can drive policy in the bloc.
It also increases uncertainty over whether European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected.
The European Parliament will hold a plenary vote on her
candidacy, most likely on 18 July, according to global advisory
firm Teneo.
"The EU was facing a historically challenging time with both
internal and external 'cracking' in systemic issues that require
increased - not decreased - cooperation," said Dana Malas
strategist at SEB group.
The yield gap between French and German bond yields
widened by 8.5 basis points (bps) to 56 bps.
France's 10-year yield was last 13.5 bps higher
at 3.244%, its biggest one-day jump in 11 months and its highest
since mid-November.
"The results of the European elections have left a visible
mark on the market," said Sophia Oertmann, analyst at DZ Bank.
"The extent of the market impact following the election...is
likely to be attributable to the national rather than the
European implications of the European elections," Oertmann
added, highlighting the widening of euro area yield spreads.
The spread between Italian and German 10-year yields
widened 9.5 bps to 141 bps as Italy's 10-year
yield hit its highest since December at 4.085%
The gap between Greek and German yields
widened 6 bps to 102, with equivalent Spanish and
Portuguese spreads widening by about 4 bps.
"As long as the centrist majority acts as a unified bloc,
and the right-wing groups remain a non-coherent bloc, the impact
on the course of policy will remain limited," said Marion
Muehlberger, senior economist at Deutsche Bank.
"Fears of a populist shock seem to have been premature, but
they may serve as a barometer of where national politics is
headed," she added.
German yields rose as investors waited for U.S. inflation
figures ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting this week and
after jobs data on Friday suggested the U.S. central bank would
be in no rush to cut rates.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro area, rose 6 bps to 2.68% but remained below late May's
high of 2.707%.
Markets expect no change in Fed rates, but see a risk that
policymakers' "dot plot" analysis of potential future policy
changes might only point to one rate cut for this year.
They are currently pricing in 38 bps of easing in 2024
which implies one rate cut and around a 50% chance of
a second move by December.