LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - French markets endured
another brutal sell-off on Friday as political uncertainty
unleashed the biggest weekly jump in the premium investors
demand to hold French government debt since 2011 and bank stocks
tumbled.
France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned the euro
zone's second-biggest economy faced the risk of a financial
crisis if the far right were to win parliamentary elections in
the coming weeks.
Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic National Rally (RN), is leading
in opinion polls following President Emmanuel Macron's surprise
decision at the weekend to call a snap election.
Le Pen's party is calling for a lowering of the retirement
age, cuts in energy prices, increased public spending and a
protectionist "France first" economic policy approach.
French banks were hit hard. The country's biggest three -
BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe
Generale - have lost between 12-16% in value this
week, the most since the banking crisis of March 2023.
The premium investors demand to hold French government bonds
over euro zone benchmark Germany meanwhile rose to its highest
level since 2017 at nearly 80 basis points.
It was set for a rise of roughly 25 bps this week, the
biggest weekly increase since 2011, when the euro zone was the
throes of a sovereign debt crisis that led to multiple
government and bank bailouts worth trillions of dollars.
"It's really hard to ignore the parallels from the situation
of 2011-2012 in the sovereign debt crisis," Justin Onuekwusi,
chief investment officer at investment firm St. James's Place,
said.
"If you go back to that period, very similar themes --
elections, sovereign debt spreads, debt sustainability in focus
with no real sign of what's going to stop this momentum."
Stock-market volatility roared higher on Friday, rising by
the most in a day since last July. Reflecting the level
of nervousness, the cost of insuring the debt of BNP Paribas,
Societe Generale and Credit Agricole rose to its highest since
the start of the year, according to S&P Global Market
Intelligence.
Shares in Italian banks also took a dive, with UniCredit
down 4.7% and Intesa Sanpaolo down 3.6%, as
investors ditched the bigger euro zone banks, including
Germany's Commerzbank, down 5.5%.
French state-backed finance body SFIL postponed a bond sale
on Friday, a lead manager memo seen by Reuters, in a sign of how
market unease was rippling out.
The CAC 40 was last down over 2%, heading for a
weekly loss of nearly 6%, its largest since early 2022, and
underperforming the regional STOXX 600 index, down just
1.8% for the week.
A decision by France's left wing parties to form a 'Popular
Front' added to selling pressure as it dents Macron's chances
emerging victorious in the election, analysts said.
The euro touched a one-month low at around $1.0690 and was
last down 0.5%.
The possibility that the RN could win has compounded
investor concerns around France's fiscal discipline. The first
round of voting takes place on June 30.
France's debt to gross domestic product ratio is above 100%,
and its deficit is around 5%. Its credit rating was downgraded
last month by S&P Global.
It now costs the French government more to borrow money for
10 years than it does the Portuguese government for the first
time since at least 2005, according to LSEG Datastream
.
There is now also less than half a percentage point of
difference in the long-term borrowing costs of the French
government and those of Greece, the biggest casualty of the euro
zone debt crisis of 2011-2012. A year ago, that
number was closer to 80 basis points.
"In terms of positioning, fast money accounts have been
short France over the last few months. However, real money
accounts, institutional accounts and Asian real money are long
France," said Jefferies analyst Mohit Kumar.
"As these accounts seek to exit their positions or reduce
exposure, buyers are unlikely to step in given that elections
are just three weeks away."
(Additional reporting by Tassilo Hummel in Paris and Dhara
Ranasinghe and Harry Robertson in London; Editing by Dhara
Ranasinghe and Christina Fincher)