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Global stocks look past US shutdown, focus on rate cuts
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No jobs report on Friday, investors take cues from
elsewhere
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Gold eases slightly from record highs
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Yen on pace for strongest week vs dollar since May
(Updates to Asia afternoon)
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks were set for
solid weekly gains on Friday as rising odds of the Federal
Reserve cutting rates in the near-term helped cushion jitters
around a U.S. government shutdown that have pushed gold to
record highs and weighed on the dollar.
Investors have mostly shrugged off the shutdown, the 15th
since 1981, even as it resulted in the suspension of scientific
research, financial oversight and delayed crucial economic data,
including the jobs report on Friday.
The lack of market reaction is partly because historically
shutdowns have had limited impact on economic growth and market
performance.
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares was up
0.3%, hitting a record high for second straight session. The
index was set for a 2.3% gain for the week and has risen about
23% so far this year. With China and parts of Asia closed for a
long holiday, volumes are likely to be thin in the region.
European futures pointed to a higher open ahead of
a flurry of manufacturing data from across the region. The
pan-European STOXX 600 closed at a record high on
Wednesday.
Weiheng Chen, global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan
Private Bank, said investors appear willing to give Washington
time to resolve its disagreements, though a prolonged shutdown
may start to move markets.
"For now, investors remain more focused on the potential
impacts of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, trade and immigration
policy, economic data, and corporate earnings," Chen said.
Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.5%, not far from the record
high it touched last month ahead of the crucial weekend vote
that will determine the next prime minister and set the tone for
fiscal and monetary policy outlook.
Asian markets were taking cues from Wall Street, where all
three major indexes closed at record highs buoyed by technology
stocks as investor enthusiasm for all things AI remains
unchallenged. Taiwan's benchmark index also hit a record
high and was last up over 1%.
NO OFFICIAL DATA
With no government reports on the labour market to take cues
from, investors have turned to alternative data from public and
private sources and so far they point to a sluggish U.S. labour
market.
Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price, said
the potential delay of critical economic data is a problem for a
data-dependent Fed, leaving the central bank reliant on less
comprehensive indicators like ADP and jobless claims.
Still, markets are becoming more confident of the Fed
sticking to its rate cutting path and are almost fully pricing
in a 25 basis point rate cut in October. Traders are pricing in
114 bps of easing by the end of 2026.
That has left the U.S. dollar under pressure. The dollar
index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other
units, was steady on the day but on course for a 0.35% weekly
decline, the biggest drop since August.
The Japanese yen has been the biggest beneficiary
of the dollar weakness this week and is set to register a 1.2%
gain, its biggest weekly gain since mid-May.
It weakened 0.3% to 147.74 per U.S. dollar on Friday after
comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left markets
guessing on when the central bank will next hike interest rates.
In commodities, gold eased 0.3% $3,845.15 an ounce,
but remained near the record high it touched on Thursday. The
yellow metal is on course for an over 2% weekly gain, its
seventh straight week of gains.
Gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of
uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. It has
risen 47% so far this year.
"As the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency
is tested, gold is emerging as the preeminent safe haven and we
continue to view it as the ultimate diversifier," said Greg
Hirt, global CIO for multi asset at AllianzGI.
"We hold a long-term negative view on the U.S. dollar and we
are positioning for further falls in the short term."
Oil prices recovered slightly on the day but were on course
for steepest weekly decline in over three months. Brent crude
futures rose 0.6% to $64.51 a barrel. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude climbed 0.6% to $60.85 a barrel.